Mercan: International perspective needed for Armenian protocols

In an exclusive interview with Today's Zaman, Eskişehir deputy Mercan said a win-win-win process from which Turkey and Armenia as well as Azerbaijan would benefit could solve the problem.

Speaking on Turkey’s relations with neighbor Iran, Mercan noted that Turkey will “continue to play a positive role in eliminating the tension regarding Iran.” The chairman explaining that the international community should support Turkey's attempts on this issue; however, Iranian officials should pay heed to the rising discomfort of the world. Underlining that politicians’ primary goal is ensuring domestic, regional and global peace, Mercan asserted that “political polemics, debates and statements as well as strategic moves and games should not disrupt stability.

“As a politician and as someone who understands how international relations work, I really don’t want to lose hope, but unfortunately my hope about Iran is slowly fading,” explains Mercan, who gave a tour d’horizon of foreign policy, responding to Today’s Zaman’s questions.

How do you view assessments that the Armenian constitutional court’s decision on the protocols will not have a negative impact on the process and that the connection to the Karabakh issue will not be accepted?

When we look at the Armenian constitutional court’s ruling, we see that there are clear provisions in the text stating how the protocols can and cannot be interpreted. After all, it is an agreement between two countries. It is not an international agreement. Only those countries that are party to an agreement are bound by that agreement.

We should also analyze the Armenian constitutional court’s decision from the perspective of international law. International legal experts need to assess the issue. While there are some lawyers and some circles who say the court’s decision does not constitute the basis of the protocols, others have different opinions. In this respect, there is uncertainty over the issue. At best there is uncertainty. In this kind of a situation, the conditions for implementing an international bilateral agreement are not completely clear. Take, for example, the issue of opening borders. The court’s decision clearly states that “opening the borders does not mean recognition of the Treaty of Kars.”

Will this uncertainty affect Parliament’s ratification of the protocols?

I think it is very difficult for Turkey to ratify the protocols under these conditions because there is some level of uncertainty. There is no clarity about how the protocols will be interpreted. Without this clarity, we should not expect the Turkish Parliament to ratify the protocols. While there is a negative attitude regarding two critical factors from Turkey’s perspective, I don’t think it is likely for Turkey to accept just opening the borders.

How will the uncertainty be resolved?

I believe there have been some attempts in the international arena and some diplomatic attempts to resolve this uncertainty. I don’t know what kinds of diplomatic solutions these will produce, but I think we need to give these efforts some time. We will be able to make assessments once a solution is devised. The second point is that the international world must consider a very important point, and that is when changing the balances in the Caucasus, it is important to pursue a balance that will benefit everyone. Disrupting other balances while trying to change one balance is like shaking a hornet’s nest. There are two main problems in the Caucasus that directly concern Turkey. One of these is relations between Turkey and Armenia, and the other is solving the problems between Armenia and Azerbaijan. When we look at these two balances, if the ratification of the protocols between Turkey and Armenia is going to exacerbate problems between Armenia and Azerbaijan or severely jeopardize Azerbaijan’s national interest, then the world should not want it, either. In other words, it’s very important to maintain a balance.

Are there benefits in the process that will satisfy all three sides?

If we want a win-win-win situation then it has to be in the following way. It must be beneficial for Armenia to contribute to solving these two problems.

It’s important to clearly see what Armenia will gain if the border is opened, if diplomatic relations are established and if the problems between Armenia and Azerbaijan are solved. The advantages that are obvious as of now are Armenia’s border to the international world will be opened, Armenia’s foreign trade will increase and Armenia will be added to the natural gas and oil pipeline routes originating from Azerbaijan. All these will significantly contribute to Armenia’s economy. Azerbaijan’s President İlham Aliyev clearly told me that once problems were solved, good economic relations would be established between Armenia and Azerbaijan as well. Armenia is going to obtain a major advantage in terms of economy. On the other hand, Turkey will have made a certain level of progress on the recognition of its borders and on the genocide issue. If the problem is solved and Armenia withdraws from Azerbaijan’s territories, Armenia will not lose anything. That is because the international community sees Armenia as an occupier and does not approve of its occupation.

Moreover, the UN has also determined that Azerbaijani territories are under Armenian occupation. In other words, the territories that Armenia is occupying are not recognized as Armenian soil. It is identified as a grey zone under occupation. Armenia’s withdrawal from these areas would not constitute a loss.

What will the status of the mountainous Karabakh region be?

At present it is an unrecognized region that has no status. If Karabakh’s status were to be determined with these developments, the power balances in the region would be changed in favor of everyone, and everyone would benefit. No one would lose anything. If this does not happen, in other words, if relations between Turkey and Armenia normalize but other balances are not considered, then the international community should be unhappy about this as it will become harder to solve the problems, and conditions that will most likely lead to conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan will develop. In other words, the risk the international community will face if the problem is not completely solved will be greater than the risk they currently face. Countries in the region, Europe, America and Russia should not want this possibility. It is for this reason that we should not look at the issue as one that only concerns Turkey and Armenia because this would be an incorrect point of view. The failure to show the necessary level of caution and sensitivity could lead the countries mentioned above to sacrifice their own strategic interests and policies for domestic policies. A prudent person would realize the need for caution. Strategic interests should not be sacrificed.

How will this process affect Nabucco?

This is one of the risks I was mentioning earlier. The West’s energy security will be at risk.

What is Turkey’s strategy regarding Iraq?

Turkey defines its Iraq strategy by taking into account the interests of the international community. The negative effects of instability in Iraq, which has the potential to turn into conflict, will not only affect the countries in the region. The spread of this instability will first pose a serious threat to energy security.

This is our main and primary concern. Our second view is that stability in the region is for our benefit, and prosperity in the region is for our benefit. That is because we are the first ones to be affected by any unrest that arises.

After the massacre in Halabja, 500,000-600,000 Iraqis sought refuge in Turkey. Therefore, we will do everything that is necessary to ensure stability in the region. And we will do this with accountability.

So when we look at it from this perspective, what is it that we want in the region? We want a structure that will ensure Iraq’s territorial and political integrity. There are two main conditions to achieve this. The first is ensuring Iraq’s political reconciliation, and the other is strengthening of the bureaucratic foundation as a natural outcome of political reconciliation. Political stability requires all components in Iraq to participate in the democratic political process. If you do not guarantee this, then division and internal conflict will be inevitable.

Does the election commission’s decision to veto some names create concern?

Frankly, this concerns us. It would be wrong to say that it doesn’t. As you know, the Iraqi Parliament’s foreign relations committee chairman, Humam Baqir Hamoudi, and a delegation accompanying him visited us a few days ago. During the visit, we clearly expressed sensitivity about this matter. We drew their attention to banning people from running in general elections and said the ban could lead to a number of complications.

A political ban today does not mean a ban forever. Sunnis need to definitely contribute to the democratic process. Our chairman [Recep Tayyip Erdoğan] could not participate in the first elections after we came to power. But this did not end his political career. We are obliged to maintain the democratic process with confidence. If there is something lacking in this, the consequences will be uncontrollable. We explained this to everyone loudly and clearly. Turkey meets with all sides, and the one suggestion it makes to everyone is to protect and consolidate the political structure. The other two main issues for Iraqis after political stability are oil and the status of Kirkuk. We try to approach these two issues in a way that does not jeopardize stability not only to the sides in Iraq but to everyone including the US, and we have been receiving very positive results. I must say Turkey has played an active role in the current stability and potential positive developments in the region.

If Turkey had not insisted on determining the future status of Kirkuk, sharing oil revenue and having all political actors engaged in nation-building to ensure stability, the country would have fallen apart, and there would be no country such as Iraq today. Internal conflict could have riddled the entire region, and the region supplying 60 percent of the world’s oil could have turned into a pool of blood. The possibility of all of this happening was not all that far off.

Turkey played and continues to play a major role in the development of bureaucratic structures. It provided training to the military, police and other bureaucratic structures to allow them to improve their standards.

It is said that Turkey’s biggest test in foreign policy will be related to Iran. There are serious concerns about Iran’s nuclear plan being a program to develop nuclear arms. What’s happening on the Iranian front?

Turkey will continue to play a positive role in eliminating the tension regarding Iran as long as it can. My opinion is that the international community needs to support Turkey’s attempts on this issue. Likewise, Iranian officials need to pay heed to the increasing discomfort of the world. As politicians our primary goal is ensuring peace for our people and then for the region and the world. We all have a responsibility to contribute to this issue. Political polemics, debates and statements as well as strategic moves and games should not disrupt stability. As a politician and as someone who understands how international relations work, I really don’t want to lose hope, but unfortunately my hope about Iran is slowly fading. I hope there will be positive developments related to this issue in the coming days.

If the UN Security Council decides to impose an embargo, will Turkey comply?

First, we need to see the structure of the embargo. There are major debates on whether this kind of decision will be reached. The international community is talking about reserves in countries such as China and Russia. It’s impossible for us to know what will be debated at the Security Council. I think these kinds of decisions in politics need to be made when the right time comes. Hopefully, we won’t need to make such decisions. I am saying this as a wish for the Iranian people. I am hoping for our neighboring Iranian people that we won’t come to that point.