2023 Turkey vision: Dreams and realities (1)
by
MEHMET ÖĞÜTÇÜ*

The decisions and investments to be made and the new generation to be brought up between today and 2023 will fundamentally affect Turkey’s position in the global system as well as its domestic stability, prosperity and sustained development in the remainder of the 21st century. Turkey will also affect the course of unfolding developments in its immediate region and beyond as a power to be reckoned with.

It is precisely for this reason that I feel a strong need to hammer out a longer-term vision for Turkey, which will ideally reflect the nation’s common desires and factors that will inspire confidence, give a clear sense of direction to us all and which will be upheld by the country’s “shareholders,” irrespective of their political leaning, ethnicity, religious beliefs and social status.

A ‘visionless’ view

Don’t get me wrong. What I am advocating here is not a blueprint to be tailored by the “high intellect” within the state mechanism. I call for an “anchor,” a “compass” to set the main parameters and achieve the synergies of the nation’s “collective intellect,” which will show Turkey’s future path to its people, the world, investors and global strategists, and the determination of this country’s dynamic forces to march in the right direction. I am not talking about a vision whose time will come 13 years down the road. What I advocate is a vision, the fruits of whose implementation can be reaped, beginning today, a vision that can right away generate and build upon success stories, reference points, big or small alike, around which further confidence can be inspired. Such a new vision will be instrumental in binding us more closely to our country’s values and common goals as well as raising high and attainable hopes, which we have not dreamed of for a long time.

Contrary to widespread belief, the most important challenges facing Turkey today are not inflation, the high public and private debt levels, the loss of international competitiveness, corruption, loose democratic credentials, the rise of political Islam, the separatist Kurdish movement or EU membership barriers. More important are the following three fundamental, and intertwined, problems: (i) the inability to wisely and efficiently manage its abundant resources, (ii) inadequate development to generate workable solutions and their effective implementation, and (iii) lack of trust emanating from the erosion of basic values and ethics in almost every segment of society.

The root cause of all these problems lies with the failure in fully grasping the importance of quality and innovation in education -- the large parts of society that are left outside the orbit of education, particularly “lifelong education.” The young population, poorly represented in the country’s governing structures, longs for fundamental changes and giant strides to catch up with the new age, thus carrying the nation forward towards the world’s premier league, while those who knowingly or unknowingly drag down this process, those who fail to properly read the change in their own countries and in the world system still reign over Turkey’s future.

From outside, Turkey represents a country that has so far been unable to use its scarce resources rationally and effectively and which exploits its vast potential effectively. There is still a huge underground economy, which both energizes and distorts the country’s fundamentals. Fair competition could not be institutionalized. The leadership could not forge a common ideal around which all were to be united to rejuvenate the country and could not adapt to the rapid transformations unfolding in the world as they can be translated into national interests.

No matter how well-intentioned and hardworking they might be, the current leaders on the political scene are not able to overcome the existing problems and make the best use of the opportunities presented by the new century. Even if they want to, it is unlikely that most leaders can manage the winds of change simply because they are generally not sufficiently equipped and sophisticated to take charge of the complexities of the 21st century except for a few new generation politicians. Despite some good examples that are still in short supply, we strongly feel the lack of world-class politicians, bureaucrats, businessmen, industrialists, artists and scientists from Turkey, a country of 73 million and a successor to many civilizations.

Vast potential

Despite the bleak current situation, it is important to underline that the fundamentals of the nation are sound and wait to be effectively and consciously harnessed. The main reason for our ruthless criticism of Turkey’s track record is due to the fact that the country, while having great potential for unprecedented achievements and a renewal in this new age, has dramatically remained far behind many emerging or transition countries that were regarded as laggards a few years ago. Under competent leadership that understands the country’s strengths and weaknesses as well as the sweeping changes that are unfolding in the global system, Turkey has the potential to move fast on the way to becoming a strong regional power.

One of Turkey’s great assets is its young population -- 44 percent of the people are under 24. Yet, because of the insufficient attention to their problems and aspirations, most youngsters have become disillusioned and alienated from the system owing to the lack of equal opportunities and hence can easily be recruited by extremist groups. With little extra effort it is possible to win the country’s dynamic youth. If they are not well educated and trained, this restless population can turn into a “time bomb” in the future. We need to mold them into a “real asset” and not a “liability” at a time when the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) industrial nations are aging.

According to some estimates, Turkey’s gross domestic product (GDP) could rise three-fold by 2023 -- divided by a population estimated to reach 92 million by that time -- from today’s $750 billion. However, Turkey can strive for a more ambitious and robust strategy, based on “high growth” (at least 8 to 9 percent per annum), “investment in people” and “a leap to the highest levels in technology” after achieving stabilization and thinking beyond the International Monetary Fund (IMF) packages.

Also, Turkey is a major player on a crowded Caspian chessboard, and whatever the current inadequacies are, the long-term prospects are promising for increased bilateral cooperation and a steady expansion of Turkish influence. The goal must be to make Turkey a regional hub for energy interconnections, trade, transportation, finance and investment through increased interdependence with its neighbors. History has witnessed striking examples of “great leaps forward’” in Japan, Germany, Korea and Southeast Asia. It is time for Turks to do likewise. Time has come and is passing by fast.