Analysts see a narrow victory for Yanukovich but Tymoshenko has threatened to call for protests in a replay of the 2004 “Orange Revolution” if she deems the vote unfair. A decisive outcome should reset the ex-Soviet republic’s relations with Russia, which deteriorated under pro-Western President Viktor Yushchenko, and decide the speed of Ukraine’s path into the European mainstream.Any challenge to the election result will further hurt confidence in the crisis-hit economy and delay talks with the International Monetary Fund, which suspended its $16.4 billion bailout plan on broken promises to control state spending.
The euphoria of 2004, when protests overturned the rigged results that gave Yanukovich victory, has disappeared after years of rowing amongst the Orange political elite that has paralyzed policy-making.
In the capital, which traditionally leans towards Tymoshenko, a sense of frustration and fatigue reigned. “It would be terrible to vote for Tymoshenko. It would be shameful to vote for Yanukovich,” said 27-year-old Natalya Zhuk. “Nothing in this country will change in the next five years.” Portrayed as a cheat and Moscow’s stooge during the 2004 mass protests, Yanukovich is eyeing a remarkable comeback, adding to his support base those who are disappointed with the Orange leaders and suffering from a deep economic crisis.
“I am sure that the Ukrainian nation deserves a better life. That is why I have voted for good changes, for stability and for a strong Ukraine,” Yanukovich said, smiling and looking relaxed, after casting his vote. He won 10 percent more of the votes than Tymoshenko in the first round on Jan. 17.
The personal antagonism between the beefy, slow-speaking Yanukovich, 59, and the petite, sharp-tongued Tymoshenko, 49, mirrors the gulf between the Russian-speaking east and nationalist west.
In the east and south, people have faith in Yanukovich’s consistency, his ability to do business with Russia and see him as a strong man shaped by a rough childhood. He has served twice as prime minister -- the same as Tymoshenko. “We lost five years of our lives thanks to Yushchenko and Tymoshenko,” said Oleg Nochvyn, a miner in his 50s.
