[CAFE CAPITAL]
Floor very slippery as meticulous plans are made for referendum package

Every general election and every poll in Turkey has been considered “very important” and political parties have always tried to motivate their constituents by terming elections as a “life or death” matter. This is why the rate of participation in Turkey’s elections is higher than in many democratic countries. A political analyst friend of mine said the reasons why elections were attached such a high level of significance relate to “an unidentified fight between change and the status quo.” The fight was identified after 2006. The change vs. status quo fight became so evident that people on the streets started keeping a tally of moves made by each side.

There is no doubt that a crushing majority of Turks will support change. But the biggest advantage of the status quo is that, as the ruling power, the Justice and Development Party (AK Party), which represents change, has become exhausted. Results from polls during the unidentified period of struggle were interpreted differently by the two sides. They found comfort in results by focusing on the positive aspects. In the end, the balance was for the most part the same.

But it seems this will not be the case after the 2011 elections. Depending on the election results, the winner of the change vs. status quo battle will be determined. More precisely, a result that means the continuation of change, which is so close to the finish line, would mean the beginning of the end for the status quo. In contrast, a result in favor of the status quo would mean losing the distance covered in the direction of change and the status quo applying antidemocratic pressure out of resentment.

If a referendum were to be held around this time, it could affect the results of the election. One of the most discussed topics last week was a referendum package on changing the Constitution. The package was prepared by the AK Party.

AK Party executives, who told me on Monday that the package was on Parliament’s agenda on Friday, started taking steps back in the middle of the week. A legal expert whom I asked about the cause of the retreat responded with the statement that inspired the title of this article. “The floor is very slippery; we need to have meticulous plans for a referendum package,” he said.

What were the “slippery floor” and apprehensions that were causing the AK Party to make meticulous plans? The first uneasiness was related to the package’s content; the second was Parliament’s arithmetic and speculations that would be created by the voting; and the third was related to how the potential second closure case against the AK Party would affect the process.

Content: The package must be developed so that constituents vote not based on their political views but based on their preference for change or the status quo. Changes to be included in the package, which every segment of society is expected to say “yes” to, are being debated to the last detail over and over again.

Speculations: The distribution of deputies in Parliament is also an important topic. It’s obvious that the status quo will want to block the road to a referendum in parliamentary voting. To prevent speculations about the AK Party losing support from some of its members, the party needs the backing of Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) deputies and independents. The Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) are determined to block the process. The BDP’s stance is of paramount importance. While AK Party executives are worried about the BDP joining the CHP-MHP block, it also does not want the party to give open support to the package. The AK Party is also trying to avoid giving any excuse to the MHP and the CHP to use negative campaigns.

Closure case: Answers are being sought for critical questions. One such questions is: If a second closure case is filed against the AK Party, how will this situation affect the constituents? What would be the advantages and disadvantages of heading to the referendum or elections as a party that faces closure? In short, while the AK Party is making plans to hold a referendum that will yield positive results, the opposition reckons that by showing the referendum card, the AK Party is taking steps that will ease its concerns. In other words, it seems risk and opportunity calculations are going to increase tensions even higher in 2011.

Israeli boycott does not affect Turkish tourism or Israeli tourists

Anti-Turkish steps taken by some Israeli officials who do not like it when Turkey points out their mistakes are backfiring. Opponents of Turkey who were obliged to apologize to the country in the “lower seat” crisis following the “one-minute” incident at Davos were not able to get the desired effect by pulling out the tourism card. Noting that Israeli tourists who come to Turkey to vacation comprise a substantial slice of the Israeli population, tourism operators said: “Some radical groups wanted to use tourism as a way to punish Turkey. Indeed, the fact that 8 percent of a country’s population goes to a country as tourists is important; however, that number is not big enough to be perceived as a ‘punishment’ in Turkey’s total tourism. Besides, Israeli tourists don’t really take propaganda about security seriously anyway.”

According to 2009 figures, the number of Israeli tourists to Turkey declined by 44 percent compared to the year before. Tourism officials say that even though the scope of anti-Turkey propaganda was big, the rate has not reached 50 percent. A tourism official friend of mine who explained that this shows that not only was the propaganda unsuccessful but also that Turkey is a country that cannot be given up said: “We are a sector of peace. There is no inappropriate practice against Israeli tourists or any other tourist. Our culture of democracy and human rights, hospitality and our business ethic would not permit such a thing. Our guests who come from different cultures find the same peace and tranquility at every hotel, pool and beach. Those who spread this kind of propaganda are doing a disservice to their own people.”

Meanwhile, the increase in the number of tourists from the Middle East and Muslim countries is making tour operators excited about 2010. The reason for special preparations and excitement is that Muslim tourists have more extravagant spending habits than Israelis.