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UN’s Ban seeks to boost Cyprus talks but hopes dim
But progress in the talks has been slower than diplomats hoped. Concerns are also mounting that a window of opportunity could slam shut if a Turkish Cypriot hard-liner wins the presidential elections in April, as polls suggest.
Ban arrives on the island at the end of intensive talks between Greek Cypriot leader Dimitris Christofias and Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat.
Diplomats and analysts say the most one could expect from Ban is a report of some “convergence” in discussions now under way on how to co-govern the island in a future peace deal.
That, however, is just a link in a complex chain of issues which have yet to be tackled in their entirety. Ban may also be careful to avoid the word “agreement,” because in these talks, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.
“I’m not optimistic. They left too much too late to intensify the talks, and that is not enough to get Talat re-elected,” said a diplomat in Nicosia.
UN supportive
Talat and Christofias, viewed as moderates, started peace talks in 2008. The United Nations, led by former Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer, facilitates negotiations, but it is largely a Cypriot-run process.
“Ours is a supporting role, not a starring one, and we shall play it as long as there is an evident will to close the division between the two communities that would otherwise threaten to grow wider over time,” said Taye-Brook Zerihoun, the UN resident envoy on Cyprus.
Ethnically split since a Turkish military intervention in 1974 triggered by a brief Greek-inspired coup, Cyprus’ division has defied a small army of mediators. Turkey has about 30,000 troops stationed in northern Cyprus.
Without a deal on Cyprus, Turkey cannot join the EU because Greek Cypriots, who are in the EU and view Ankara as the primary source of the conflict, will block it.
Growing frustration in Turkey at the slow pace of its EU talks may also take its toll, said Hubert Faustman, associate professor of history and politics at the University of Nicosia.
“The worse it looks in Turkey’s EU relations the less inclined Ankara may be to play ball on Cyprus,” Faustman said.
These concerns will be predominant in Ban’s mind during a two-day visit to the island which is split by a cease-fire line manned by one of the oldest UN peacekeeping operations worldwide.
Negotiations now focus on uniting Cyprus as a two-zone federation linked by a central government. Sticking points range from how to settle property claims from thousands of internally displaced Cypriots to territorial adjustments.
Veteran Turkish Cypriot politician Derviş Eroğlu, a hard-liner leading in the opinion polls ahead of the April 18 vote, advocates a two-state deal, rejected outright by Greek Cypriots.
“He [Talat] needs just enough to say he is ‘almost there’ in terms of the talks,” another diplomat said. “The caveat is that if Talat loses in April all bets are off.”
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