[OPINION] Time for Turkey and Greek Cypriots to start talking

It has cursed several past rounds of talks on reunifying the 1 million people on the island, divided politically since 1963 and militarily since 1974. With the latest process stalling, the time has come for a radical move that brings Greek Cypriots and Turkey fully into the negotiations.

After holding over 60 tête-à-tête meetings in 16 months, the leaders of the 80 percent majority Greek Cypriot and 20 percent minority Turkish Cypriot communities have now launched a new and “intensified” phase of reunification talks. But hopes for achieving a quick convergence on governance were set back when a package of proposals given by Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat to his Greek Cypriot counterpart, Demetris Christofias, on Jan. 7 was rejected as “unacceptable” three days later in a meeting of Christofias with all Greek Cypriot party leaders. On Jan. 12 Christofias brought his own package to the table, but his proposals restated his government’s previous positions and did not respond directly to the Turkish Cypriot ones.

The Turkish Cypriots’ 10-item package included broad rights to be given to constituent states in external relations (e.g., signing treaties with third parties); freedom of movement of goods, capital, services and persons for Turkish and Greek citizens on the island until Turkey joins the EU; enhanced representation for Turkish Cypriots in the executive, legislative and administrative institutions of the new state; and qualified voting in the assembly that effectively includes the possibility of one community vetoing proceedings by walking out.

In previous rounds of negotiations, for instance, the Greek Cypriot side had already made the key concession of a rotating presidency and vice presidency, with four years as president for the Greek Cypriot leader against two years for the Turkish Cypriot; the Turkish Cypriot proposals demanded a three-to-two-year ratio. At the same time, a key Turkish Cypriot concession was to accept Greek Cypriot demands for simultaneous cross-voting in presidential elections.

In addition to the content of the package -- very unrealistic in some parts but in others clearly the product of hard-fought compromises between Turkish doves and hawks -- the way it was presented clouded its chances. Even though it is prefaced with a statement that “insofar as the internal balance of the proposal is observed, the Turkish Cypriot side is ready to consider any constructive suggestion that may come from the Greek Cypriot side,” presentations in the Turkish media smacked of a “take-it-or-leave-it” attitude.

Despite the Greek Cypriot parties’ dismissal of the Turkish Cypriot proposals, Christofias has gone on with the talks, apparently understanding that the Greek Cypriot side risks seeming the less constructive side in the eyes of the international community. Having rejected the last UN plan for a settlement in 2004 -- a plan strongly backed by the EU and the US -- the Greek Cypriots cannot once again risk another public relations failure.

And the Greek Cypriots seem to have realized that time is running out for reaching a deal. The Turkish Cypriot side had been asking for months that the negotiations be speeded up; yet, Christofias only agreed to intensify talks now, when the April elections amongst Turkish Cypriots are already looming ominously over the process.

There is still time to get out of this impasse. The Turks and Greek Cypriots must establish broader channels of communication through which misinformation can be corrected and prejudices on both sides overcome to secure the confidence needed for a comprehensive federal deal.

As the larger party (not to mention the one maintaining a garrison on north Cyprus of at least 21,000 soldiers, or, according to the Greek Cypriots, 43,000 soldiers), it would make sense for Turkey to take the lead in reaching out broadly to Greek Cypriots and generating a minimum of trust. The Greek Cypriots should not to miss that chance if the invitation comes. They must find a way to start talking directly to Turkey. Turkey has already offered direct talks with the Greek Cypriots, on the condition that the Turkish Cypriot leader and the Greek government are in also involved in a balanced way. This could even be in the form of Christofias and Talat visiting Ankara, and then Athens, in turn.

The Greek Cypriots have rejected this format for a meeting, although there is nothing intrinsically wrong with it. Greece and the Greek Cypriots may not want Athens to be involved, but historically, it has always been linked to the problem and can be part of the solution. Even today, there are probably as many Greek flags in Cyprus as there are Turkish flags flying next to the Turkish Cypriot flag.

The Greek Cypriot argument that this will pave the way to partition by somehow promoting the status of the Turkish Cypriot leader is not a strong argument and certainly misses the point of what is at stake. If this round of talks fails, that will be the surest route to partition, resulting in great losses for Cypriots and all others affected by the dispute.

The mutual lack of understanding between the Greek Cypriots and the Turks of Turkey was amply voiced by Greek Cypriot coalition partner DIKO’s (the Democrat Party) deputy head Andreas Angelides when he said last week, “Turkey has no reason to give us anything.” Greek Cypriots seem blind to the fact that Turkey feels the same about them, since the Greek Cypriots appear to be sitting pretty in the EU, from where they block nearly half of Turkey’s EU membership negotiating chapters.

People should not fool themselves: Further postponements of a settlement will have dire consequences for all sides. A breakthrough that brings the Turkish government and the Republic of Cyprus into the same room is now urgent. After so many decades of delays to a solution on the bicommunal, bizonal basis first set out in 1977, the problem is that if indeed there is to be yet another postponement, the basis for any such reunification will have been completely whittled away.

*Didem Akyel is a research assistant with the Crisis Group’s Turkey/Cyprus Project.