The new face of Turkish foreign policy (I)
by
Özer Sencar & Ünal Bilir*

The change that is visible in the process, which started with Turkey’s approach that eventually approved the Annan plan to re-establish an integrated Cyprus, we know, has been defined by diplomatic circles and famed experts as an axial shift. Indeed, the developments that have occurred in the country’s foreign policy sphere during the term of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) correspond to a radical change in Turkish diplomatic preferences rather than a simple adjustment or a new strategy. A number of experts studying Turkey’s new policy naturally feel the need to take into consideration the repercussions and impacts of this policy on the international community and diplomatic and political players’ reactions to this policy. However, in making observations about Turkey’s new foreign policy, it is essential that the role of the domestic political environment in this process and the approach adopted by the country’s general public toward it be taken into consideration. This article aims to analyze Turkey’s existing foreign policy and identify its coordinates and has as its takeoff point the argument that Turkish foreign policy evolves with an emphasis on the people’s expectations and with an orientation toward solutions and mutual gains in bilateral relations. The findings of a new survey conducted by the MetroPOLL Strategic and Social Research Center to measure the general public’s perceptions of and support for the ruling AK Party’s new foreign policy form the factual basis of this thesis.

Half of the population impressed

The most striking characteristic of the new Turkish foreign policy as found by this survey is that the people of Turkey find the AK Party’s foreign policy performance to be successful and support it. Of the people surveyed, 12.3 percent and 42.4 percent found the government’s foreign policy in 2009 to be very successful and successful, respectively, while 32.9 percent and 10 percent considered it to be unsuccessful and very unsuccessful, respectively. Only 2.3 percent of the people interviewed said they had no idea about the government’s foreign policy, which implies that contrary to widely held beliefs, the people of Turkey monitor developments in foreign policy closely. Despite foreign policy steps which were likely to produce radical and political reactions, such as the rapprochement and re-establishment of diplomatic relations with Armenia and the government of northern Iraq, the government has managed to convince more than half of the people that its foreign policy is moving in the right direction, and the opposition’s claim that it has bowed to pressure from the EU and the US has not been bought by the general public; instead, the government’s foreign policy has received extensive popular support. Last year, the government’s foreign policy focused on developing relations with neighboring countries rather than with the EU, and this is well in accordance with the priorities of the general public. It is said that if a referendum were held on the country’s EU membership today, 49.7 percent would vote “yes” while 34.9 percent would vote “no.” This implies that there has been a 5.3 percent decrease in the number of people who approve of the country becoming a member of the EU.

The regional foreign policy initiative -- to turn a country “surrounded by enemies” into one which has “zero problems with its neighbors” -- can be said to have been accepted by the people, according to the survey results. In this context, the change in popular perceptions about Iran, which Turkish foreign policy has long regarded as an ideological and strategic threat, is quite remarkable. The people not only approve of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s attitude toward Iran and his visit to this country, but also support the idea of establishing friendly ties with the country.