A stronger Turkey means more rivals in the region

Seeking to build strong relations with countries in the region after long ignoring its eastern neighbors, Turkey’s recent moves raised fear among its rivals both in the region and the West.

“It has become more self-confident, stronger, and the EU and the US have weakened. It is Turkey’s right to build good relations with its neighbors,” Hugh Pope, the director of the Turkey/Cyprus Project at the International Crisis Group, told Sunday’s Zaman. Turkey has developed strong relations with its neighbors in the past year, raising some concerns in the West over its alignment. Most of these concerns were drummed up by Israeli media outlets. “Turkey is aligned on Ankara,” Davutoğlu said during a conference in Washington, D.C., on Dec. 8.

Turkey has already removed visa requirements with Syria and Jordan and will lift them with Sudan, Azerbaijan and Iran in the weeks to come. It signed agreements of strategic cooperation with Gulf countries, Iraq, Syria and others in the region to create an economic pool and to bring neighboring countries closer to Turkey. Over the past year, Turkey began to normalize relations with Armenia, strengthen ties with Russia, build better relations with the US and seek a breakthrough on both Cyprus and Azerbaijan’s Nagorno-Karabakh problem. Turkey is doing things the West is not used to seeing, and this is why the West is irritated,” Osman Gazi Özgüdenli, a professor from Marmara University, told Sunday’s Zaman.

Israel an architect of the spat

Always attempting to be a dominant power in the Middle East, Israel is also uneasy with the growing Turkish power in the region. Turkey is building close relations with Iran and Syria, two countries that Israel cannot get along with as they strongly support the end of the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories. As a result, Israel has loudly criticized Turkey and claimed that Turkey’s growing relations with countries in the Middle East have caused it to slowly drift away from the West. The Israeli media have worked tooth and nail to issue the West a “wake-up call” and to lead it to question Turkey’s foreign policy initiatives.

Turkey was mediating peace talks between Israel and Syria for more than a year until Israel announced it will no longer accept Turkey as honest broker subsequent to Prime Minister Erdoğan’s remarks on Israel’s Gaza offensive on various occasions. After all this, media reports labeling Foreign Minister Davutoğlu a neo-Ottoman and Turkey an anti-Western country appeared in the Western and Israeli media. “Israel does not want Turkey as a mediator because of the behavior of Erdoğan,” Shlomo Brom, an expert at the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies, told Sunday’s Zaman. Commenting on Israel’s uncertain stance on Turkey, I think there is some disagreement inside Israel as to whether or not Turkey should remain as a mediator -- with some arguing that it is not impartial (and widening the rift between Turkey and Israel), and others seeing the need to continue working with Turkey,” Ellen Lust-Okar, a political science professor at Yale University, told Sunday’s Zaman.

France, a country that has always tried to lead the peace processes in the Middle East, pushed both Syria and Israel to accept it as a mediator. “Today, Israel is saying that it can no longer accept Turkey as a mediator, since the Turks have clearly taken sides in the Arab-Israeli conflict. And basically what Syria is saying: No talks without Turkey,” Sami Moubayed, a Syrian historian, political analyst and university professor based in Damascus, told Sunday’s Zaman.

Observers, however, also believe that Turkey is on the right track and should only be careful with its rhetoric and make sure that its relations with Israel are fine. “If Turkey wants to contribute towards a comprehensive peace in the Middle East, she will have to be more even-handed and improve her relations with Israel,” David Phillips, an American expert on Turkey at the Atlantic Council think tank, said to Sunday’s Zaman.

Pope, however, believes that every country is “happy” with Turkey’s relations with its neighbors. “No country is trying to undermine Turkey in the region,” Pope claimed. “Justice and Development Party [AK Party] leaders have spoken about the relations with its neighbors and Israel. It is more a problem of the rhetoric. It may be a problem of taking the words out of the context in far away capitals, too. The AK Party can make it easier for themselves if they use more measured terms,” Pope told Sunday’s Zaman. “The problem is not the fact that he [Erdoğan] criticizes Israel. … France and the US also criticize Israel on different occasions. The problem is language and style,” Brom noted.

Iran also concerned on Turkey

Another rising power in the region is definitely Iran with its rich oil and gas resources. Despite sanctions and embargos applied by the US for almost 15 years, Iran’s economic development is indifferent to these barriers. Turkey and Iran, traditional rivals in the region, are now cooperating in many areas. Although observers believe that Iran will be careful about Turkey’s expansion, it also understands that “Turkey is the only window for Iran to the West,” in Özgüdenli’s terms.

“Obama is trying to create a united front against Iran, to put pressure on the country. Turkey appears to have chosen instead a more neutral role as a country which can mediate because it maintains good relations with all sides. In the end, this Turkish role may prove more important to the Obama administration than the tougher position it would prefer,” Marina Ottaway, an expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told Sunday’s Zaman.

However, Iran is closely monitoring the developments surrounding its nuclear row and is also considering the possibility that Turkey could store low-enriched uranium (LEU) in its territory. Following Prime Minister Erdoğan’s meeting with US President Barack Obama, Iran announced that it will no longer cooperate with Turkey on LEU storage, clear testimony of Iran’s fear of Turkey’s rise. Özgüdenli, however, claims there can be several powers in the region and that they may choose cooperation rather than competition. “Iran and Turkey are doing exactly the same thing,” he added.