Protecting democracy, prosecuting coup plotters, promoting public opinion
by
KLAUS JURGENS

There were times when I had thought Öymen would be a perfect choice for a CHP prime minister when the time comes, as it does in every democracy; referring to the pendulum of power swinging back and forth between government and opposition. I recall sitting next to Onur Bey in a conference room inside Parliament when I had the great honor of introducing a group of my past students to meet with the EU Harmonization Committee of the Turkish Parliament.

He had kindly agreed to address my group together with leading personalities of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) about the prospects of Turkey’s EU accession and developments regarding the Cyprus issue. I witnessed democracy firsthand as it is intended to be: open, transparent, and civic; my group had been featured on Parliament TV, too, and on a good number of occasions I recalled this important afternoon as this was the moment from which onwards I thought “Europe will happen,” “the CHP and AK Party work together,” both government and opposition have started to cooperate, and a former ambassador to a leading EU member state would be able to turn around a CHP that had strayed into far-right territory.

Onur Bey -- in particular after I had met him on the above-detailed visit to Parliament -- came across as a potential future CHP leader who would know about Turkey’s core values and its Western vocation. I even had the intention of traveling to Bursa to arrange a meeting with him to learn more about his party’s plans for bringing Turkey closer to Europe, as one day his party will come back to power as there is no other even remotely “government-ready” political opposition party visible on Turkey’s horizon. After the “verbal” Dersim debacle I am not so sure anymore whether I should book my overland coach ticket to visit him in his northwestern constituency as of yet. In a nutshell, I was too optimistic.

Turkey’s civic revolution

Let me put all this into perspective, traveling back in time not from Ankara to Bursa but straight into November of 2002. Early in the new millennium, the proud citizens of the Republic of Turkey embarked on the path towards their very own kind of democratic transformation without the need for advice from either active or retired foreign politicians. Turkey’s society had matured enough, and there was an express train ready to depart. Final destination: establishing an irreversible people’s democracy. This Turkish movement was all about its very own citizens well-being and had not been inspired by ageing Western European politicians who were otherwise known to throw away their expensive cashmere sweaters into the hands of “poor,” formerly communist neighbors; actually, except for constantly criticizing this great nation, most European observers and decision-makers had done little to really support Turkish civic society, or have they? Turkey’s civic revolution was not masterminded in Berlin or Paris or Washington and was for sure not orange, pink, velvet or fashioned in any other “fabricated” color: It was true red complete with a white crescent.

A turning point in Turkey’s history came about when its current Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, a former mayor of its historical and financial capital İstanbul, entered center stage in late 2002. By then the Turkish people had gotten fed up with enduring coups, witnessing brutal military interventions, being treated as unwanted extras in an otherwise static country run by few for even fewer and the resulting domestic terror, often planned by those who claimed to be working on behalf of the nation. They did not lynch their masters as their past masters had previously done with their own folk -- they simply went to the ballot boxes. Masters no more -- democratically elected, majority-endorsed politicians are what the Turkish people asked for and finally got. Not only this -- we must recall that they had “democratically elected” governments before, but there was always a threat of another illegal interference from the barracks. Although this danger is still not entirely eradicated and perhaps one or two officers are tonight busy plotting for another “coup,” their support within the armed forces will continue to erode fast.  

The victory of democracy

What makes me happy is that democracy won; it always wins. Like a person on a long and winding road towards fulfilling ones life’s ambitions, temporarily faltering along the way, overcoming roadblocks and unfair obstructions but ultimately coming out on top Turkish people are just like that. No more being afraid of the people who live next door as they might eavesdrop on your private conversations. No more worries about sending a letter to the editor of a serious newspaper complaining about the malpractices of whichever Turkish government or military representatives. Finally realizing that men in uniform are not allowed to speak on behalf of the nation and in front of TV cameras unless instructed to do so by the elected prime minister or president? No more distance between the Turkish flag and its people, as the people make the flag and the flag does not make the people. Welcome to the world of independent but globally integrated civil-society-based nation states.

Are future interferences and threats at overthrowing Turkey’s democratically elected governments impossible? Of course not, but they have become less and less likely as by now the people have started to defend both their own country and much more importantly themselves against illegal attempts at sidelining democracy. A few years down the road from today a military coup in Turkey will have become as unthinkable as a future military intervention in The Hague, Brussels or Paris.

Turkish people were caught in between making ends meet during the difficult economic times that affected almost every market economy and at the same time coming to terms with the idea that some of the institutions and individuals they harbored had nothing better to do than plotting to take away the country from those to whom it belongs: themselves, the Turkish people. Having said that, civic society needs leaders and elected governments, as if not, anarchy would follow suit; hence, Turkish citizens, similar to citizens in any other democracy are voters, too. If a state is run well by elected people who work for the people I would assume we live in a nation of happy folk, correct? My journalistic curiosity did not stop here, and I wanted to learn about the “happiness barometer” of Turkish people and came across the right opinion poll at the right time while writing this column.

Let me paraphrase it: Can Turkish voters be happy on a personal level, help to rid the nation of unwanted coup plotters and still follow developments with regards to Turkey’s general political environment all at the same time? Apparently so. Please let me explain: I was alerted to the results of a surprising public opinion survey compiled by the Ankara-based MetroPOLL. To make sure our readers do not misinterpret this column as undue “validation” or to make matters worse, suspect free public relations for the company that carried out the survey, please let me stress that I indeed worked with its director and one of his colleagues on two occasions; no unimportant ones for that matter as we arranged presentations for both the Turkish Health Ministry and the Education Ministry in 2006 about introducing regulatory impact analysis into the Turkish legal framework.

Back in 2006 opinion polls had only just begun to become part of the staple diet of Turkish policymaking, and I was glad to have found a reputable company working in the domain of statistics, questionnaires and future impact analysis models, indeed. I can only hope that the Turkish government has access to this month’s MetroPOLL data as they make for interesting reading, indeed.

The mood of the Turkish electorate

Let me sum up the November 2009 opinion poll findings in a nutshell, suggesting that readers click to the following Web site for more details: www.metropoll.com.tr, “Social and Political Situation in Turkey.” For the poll, 1,253 randomly selected Turkish citizens were invited to comment on a variety of topics. First, I chose three general indicators to highlight the mood of the Turkish electorate:

Happiness: The number of respondents “being very satisfied” went down from 9 percent in October 2008 to 6.2 percent in November 2009, but if asked about towards which direction Turkey is headed, 31.2 percent see it more positive than when compared to a month or a year ago.

Most trusted politician: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan comes in at 34.7 percent, no real surprise here, but the number that should alert everyone is the 29.7 percent of people who responded that “none of the options” was preferred. Extreme dissatisfaction with all mainstream politicians often breeds contempt for democracy in more general terms -- Turkish decision-makers: Please carefully read between the lines of this question.

Then came the important question of which party you would vote for in the next election: 32.2 percent AK Party, 23.1 percent CHP, 18.4 percent Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), neither good nor bad for a party in power since 2002 but then again a welcome sign of stability compared to the ups and downs of the political system Turkey endured decade after decade.

I then selected three specific issues to shed even more light on how Mr. and Mrs. Smith in the form of its Turkish equivalent view the current state of affairs:

First, the democratic initiative towards normalizing ties with people of Kurdish origin is not yet a majority viewpoint and stands with only 31.9 percent in support.

Second, the Armenian accord as reached in Zurich: approved by 41.6 percent, opposed by 45.9 percent of persons polled.

Finally, current relations with Israel: while 46.1 percent of respondents approve of the “new tone” as used by the current Turkish government, 42 percent do not.

 To sum it up: Few Turkish citizens are “very” happy, but more than before think the country is headed in the right direction; not yet is there a majority that is pro-democratization efforts; voters are not yet decided about the new terms of relations with Armenia, and are just about in favor of a stronger foreign policy stance versus Israel. A spin doctor’s nightmare, a politician’s chance, or could it be the other way round.

Are early elections on the agenda? Or will we witness a Gordon Brown, UK-style last-minute election date strategy? Can the AK Party survive the test of time, again? What is better for Turkey; what is more apt for its European vocation?

Coming back to my initial remarks about the great personal disappointment I felt about Öymen’s slip into becoming tabloid fodder instead of staying where he belongs -- making positive broadsheet headline news -- I reckon that at least in the first half of the next decade Turkey will be governed by the same party as it is today, perhaps even seeing it through to becoming a full EU member state. Good for Turkey? I shall think so.