White House rendezvous to test solidness of Turkey-US relations

As usual for any meeting between Turkish and US leaders, Erdoğan and Obama are set to discuss a packed agenda on how the two NATO allies will cooperate on a number of hot issues. Among the most pressing issues of global politics, the apparently diverging approaches of the two allies toward Iran’s nuclear program and Turkey’s unwillingness to change the parameters of its mission in Afghanistan despite an official US request for the contribution of further troops and more flexibility on the Afghanistan mission are likely to be the largest topics dealt with.

    These two issues will probably be a litmus test for the declared “model partnership” between Ankara and Washington -- which some say is a notion still at an amorphous state. During a landmark visit to Turkey in April, Obama refrained from employing the frequently used “strategic partnership” term to define relations between Turkey and the US, but rather suggested building a “model partnership” between Turkey and the United States with a unity based on ideals and values.

    While in Turkey, Obama said: “I think where there’s the most promise is in the idea that Turkey and the United States can build a model partnership, one in which a majority Christian and a majority Muslim nation, a Western nation and a nation that straddles two continents can come together; we can create a modern international community that is respectful, secure and prosperous. This is extremely important.”

A bilateral relationship between NATO allies Turkey and the United States is one of the relationships that is the most institutionalized, Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu said in June, calling for a focus on the future of this relationship instead of constantly recalling their mutual solidarity during the Korean War.

In a speech delivered in Washington, Davutoğlu listed the foreign policy issues on agenda of both Ankara and Washington at the time: Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, the Palestine-Israel dispute, Lebanon, Caucasus, Armenia and Cyprus. He added: “A model partnership is not an issue of preference, but it is a necessity. The US president wanted to stress the uniqueness of this relationship. This is not an ordinary relationship; it’s a prototype and a unique relationship.”

No dull moment with these ‘unique’ ties

Erdoğan’s meeting with Obama comes days after the latter unveiled his new strategy on Afghanistan in a long-awaited speech delivered on Tuesday and also at a time when global alarm is growing over Turkey’s neighbor Iran’s failure to dispel fears it harbors plans to build nuclear weapons.

At West Point Obama announced he would deepen the US involvement in Afghanistan, sending 30,000 more troops to fight the Taliban. He also called for additional commitments from US allies and pledged to strengthen ties with Pakistan, where al-Qaeda and Taliban fighters have been based.

Hours after Obama’s speech, US Ambassador to Turkey James Jeffrey announced to Turkish media that Ankara and Washington have been holding discussions over a US request for more troops for Afghanistan from Turkey, stating that the US has asked for a “specific number” of troops, although he declined to name that number.

Turkish officials were quick to refuse to send combat troops to Afghanistan but refrained from responding to the request for more troops.

On the Iran front, just a week ago, in a major expansion of its nuclear program and in retaliation for a recent resolution by the UN, Tehran said on Sunday it would build 10 more uranium enrichment sites like its Natanz International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)-monitored underground one.

The IAEA resolution, which passed on Nov. 27, censured Iran for covertly constructing a second enrichment plant near the holy city of Qom, demanding that construction halt. Turkey, along with Afghanistan, Brazil, Egypt, Pakistan and South Africa, abstained.

Potential problems, one or two?

According to Ian Lesser, a senior transatlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, the controversy surrounding Iran’s nuclear program will definitely be at the top of the agenda during Monday’s talks between Erdoğan and Obama.

“It is an issue on which both Turkey and the United States share a basic interest. Neither of the two want to see an Iran with nuclear weapons,” Lesser told Sunday’s Zaman in a brief telephone interview.

“There is clearly a gap in the approaches of Turkey and the Obama administration, but there is also a very serious strategic dialogue going on between the two parties,” Lesser said, in apparent reference to Erdoğan’s accusations of the West treating Iran “unfairly,” while expressing his conviction that Iran’s motives regarding nuclear power were “peaceful.”

“The US will look to Turkey to use its close relations with Iran to change its stance at a time when the possibility of UN Security Council sanctions is growing each day. The Obama administration will probably ask Erdoğan to convey their tough messages to Tehran,” Lesser said, underlining that not only Western countries, but also Turkey’s eastern friends, such as the Gulf countries, are concerned over Iran’s nuclear program.

When asked whether he expected any harmful effect on bilateral relations in the case of an absence of a full agreement on the issue, Lesser said, “A serious gap between Turkish and US perceptions has the potential to cause a serious problem, but not a collapse.”

He also said he believed that questions on the souring ties between Turkey and Israel might be posed at lower-level meetings, but not necessarily during the White House meeting.

Lesser, who focuses on the US-Turkey-EU triangle in his studies, meanwhile, warned that the recent course of affairs regarding the rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia will be high on the agenda of the meeting.

The US side will urge Turkey for further progress on normalization efforts with Armenia, probably via the swift ratification of the two protocols signed by the governments on restoring diplomatic ties and reopening the common border between the two neighboring countries, he said.

Unlike some Turkish commentators, Lesser believes that the Afghanistan issue will not turn into a major problem in bilateral relations.

Modalities of a model partnership

Both Turkish and US officials have been trying hard to dispel long-held clichés regarding the nature of the relationship between the two countries, -- clichés which were nourished during the Bush administration, since the approach at the time implied “Don’t get into a knock-down, drag-out fight, or we’ll harm you,” or “We have made a decision, this is the decision, come if you want to join us on this decision.”

“If you permit me, that question is typical Cold War logic. It assumes that there is one power, the United States, who always wants something from us. But being an ally means sharing, being inclusive,” Davutoğlu said in a recent interview with Newsweek when bluntly asked “what the US wants from Turkey.”

Listing again the foreign policy issues that are on agenda of both Ankara and Washington, he added, “We share the problems, and we are therefore trying to solve these problems together.”

In Ankara, during the same meeting with Turkish media when he disclosed his country’s request for Afghanistan Wednesday, US Ambassador Jeffrey was asked about the possible US response if Turkey doesn’t agree to send more troops to Afghanistan.

“This is a discussion among people who are in a model partnership,” Jeffrey firstly noted in response.

“And if Turkey can’t provide more troops or more money or more civilians, then we would say, ‘OK, is the reason that you don’t believe in the mission and you think that we should do something different, or that you don’t have the resources.’ Then, you know, we go back and forth, and we do this with 43 countries; Turkey is no different, and people do that with us, believe me, on a half-dozen issues. Turkey asks us to do this, and we explain we can’t do this, we can do only one-third of what you want, and Turkey asks us why can’t you do two-thirds?” he elaborated.

“And I constantly try to emphasize, all of this is normal, it’s not a plot against Turkey, it is not a source of conflict. This is what countries do, like individuals do. Ups and downs are like in private relations, that’s what normal countries do, but many people read into that some sort of either America is pressuring Turkey or Turkey is refusing to support America or Turkey is moving away from the West. Depending upon your political position; people will either take this position or that position. None of this has any relation to the reality, as I know it, in my over 25 years working with Turkey,” he concluded.