A public survey: Democratic initiative and coup document (1)
by
SITKI YILDIZ*

Public surveys carried out with respect to social or political issues provide final and permanent results and insights and they are done to detect the public perception with respect to the issue under review. It should be noted that the word “statistics” is derived from a Latin term that literally means “state” and “situation.” The findings of a political survey will help determine the final state of the issue at hand and draw a roadmap for future actions.

Public support for the Kurdish initiative or the democratic initiative sponsored by the AK Party government in recent times and the authenticity and content of a document allegedly drafted by the General Staff seeking to plot and instigate a military coup is being measured by public surveys. One of these polls is a study titled “Democratic Initiative and Coup Document,” sponsored by MetroPOLL and carried out in November.

Democratic initiative and the position of political actors

The harsh opposition staged by the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) since the very beginning of the democratic initiative process may be viewed as a signal suggesting that the process will be painful. The announcement and engagement of the leaders of these two parties that they will never meet with the prime minister to discuss this initiative meant that they will hold the AK Party responsible in the event that the initiative fails. The opposition parties used the opportunity created by the return of Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) militants, a symbolic meaning of the initiative, and an irritating showdown during the welcoming ceremony to prove the validity of their arguments, suggesting that the government compromised with terrorists. The findings of studies done by MetroPOLL in August and November provide insights on the management and success of the democratic initiative process. To this end, the study finds that 43.8 percent of respondents were opposed to the democratic initiative project in August, whereas this figure rose to 51.6 percent in November. The role of the public perception of the return of PKK militants from the mountains in the decline in public support toward the initiative in a period of three months should be attributed to propaganda being spread by the opposition parties.

The administration of the initiative is as important as its content; if you fail to properly administer a well-planned project, you will not get the desired outcome. The administration of the democratic initiative will require the effective use of communication techniques and the explanation of the project to the people. The findings of the survey show that one-third of AK Party voters are opposed to the initiative; this means that even this party’s support base remains unconvinced. Only 35 percent of respondents find the AK Party successful in the management of the process. Likewise, 56.6 percent of the respondents hold negative sentiments about the government and the prime minister because of this process. It appears that the irritating ceremony played a key role in the rising public opposition to the initiative and the government.

As such, opposition parties MHP and CHP instead of the ruling party have benefited from the initiative thanks to the unpleasant developments that took place during the return of the PKK militants. Relying on the failure of the ruling party instead of devising alternative methods and policies is a unique style of opposition prevalent in Turkey.

An interesting point to note about Turkish politics is that the current project in particular is being rejected by the main opposition party, which has itself developed similar initiatives in the past, simply because another political actor is advancing this project. This is further confirmed by the findings of the survey; 60 percent of respondents oppose the CHP’s position vis-à-vis the initiative, whereas this figure is 58 percent for the MHP. Therefore, seeing the failure of the ruling party as their success may undermine the image of the opposition parties. The people also criticize the stance of the Democratic Society Party (DTP), which is party to the initiative. Ninety-four percent of respondents and 55 percent of DTP supporters criticized the party’s stance during the celebrations held to welcome the PKK militants returning to the country.