Poll: Military plot damaged public trust in TSK

The Ankara-based MetroPOLL Strategic and Social Research Center conducted a survey on the political situation in Turkey to get an idea of what the public thinks about a recently exposed military plot to undermine the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and the faith-based Gülen movement as well as the government's ongoing efforts to settle the Kurdish issue.

One of the questions in the survey was on participants' ideas about to what extent the TSK was committed to democracy and the rule of law in Turkey. More than a third of participants in the survey said they did not believe that the TSK doesn't shelter pro-coup officers, despite the General Staff's pledges to the contrary, which is a sign of the loss of the TSK's credibility in the eyes of the public in Turkey, where trust in the military used to be up to 80 percent among the public in the past. The Turkish military has recently become the center of mounting criticism over a military action plan, bearing the genuine signature of Col. Dursun Çiçek.

The plot details a plan to destroy the image of the government and the Gülen movement in the eyes of the public, to play down the Ergenekon investigation and to gather support for members of the military arrested as part of the investigation into Ergenekon, a clandestine organization plotting to overthrow the government. The plot, called the Action Plan to Fight Reactionaryism, made its way into the media in early June. The General Staff, however, denied possession of the plan, saying the document was merely a photocopied version. An unnamed military officer mailed the original copy to Ergenekon prosecutors last month, which eliminated all suspicion surrounding the authenticity of the document. Since June, Chief of General Staff Gen. İlker Başbuğ has reiterated that his military had always been deeply loyal to democracy and the rule of law and the TSK does not shelter junta groups. However, according to the latest MetroPOLL survey almost 37 percent of the participants said they do not believe that, while 52 percent of the participants admitted they still believed the military was loyal to democracy and the rule of law.

In the poll, 33 percent of participants also said their confidence in the TSK has been damaged following the appearance of the military plot, while 42 percent said there has been no change in their confidence in the TSK and the chief of General Staff. Furthermore, 31.7 percent of the respondents said the chief of General Staff should resign while 50 percent said he should remain in his post.

Reflections of democratic initiative

Another issue respondents were asked about was the ruling AK Party’s democratic initiative to bring a solution to the country’s long-standing Kurdish issue. Asked whether they support the initiative process or not, 51.6 percent said they opposed it while 35.4 said they supported it. As for the question of whether they found the government successful in managing the initiative process, 59 percent replied “no,” while 28 percent said “yes.” Professor Özer Sencar, the owner of MetroPOLL, said the poll results on the initiative revealed that the government had not explained its plans to settle the issue sufficiently to the public yet, while the opposition was successful in making its position heard louder. Public opinion about the government and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan seems to have been negatively influenced by the democratic initiative process, according to poll results. As for the question of whether their view of the government has been negatively or positively influenced since the initiative was announced, 56 percent of the respondents said negatively and 38 percent said positively. While 30 percent of AK Party supporters also said their views about the government and the prime minister have been affected negatively, 77 percent of pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP) supporters said they look the government more positively with the initiative.

As Sancar says, the enthusiastic reception of Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) members while returning to Turkey last month also negatively affected public opinion on the initiative. According to the poll, 93.9 percent of the respondents said they found the enthusiastic and joyous reception of PKK members by DTP supporters and others wrong. According to the poll, while 35 percent of the respondents said they support the stance of Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader Deniz Baykal, who strongly opposes the initiative on the grounds that it would lead to separation in the country, it is noteworthy that 23 percent of those who said they voted for the CHP in the latest local elections disagree with Baykal.

When respondents were asked for which party they would vote if the general elections were held today, 32.2 percent said they would vote for the AK Party, a figure lower than the 38.3 percent of the vote the party received in the March 29 local elections. While 23.1 percent said they would vote for the CHP, 18.4 percent said they would vote for the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP).