Zero-problem policy as challenging as riding two horses, says expert

The emeritus professor is in Damascus to discuss “the re-emergence of Turkey as a regional player and its potential new role regarding Europe” during a two-day conference that was organized by the Danish Institute in Damascus in partnership with International Media Support (IMS) and which began on Monday.

Prominent intellectuals, academics and journalists met here to search for answers to questions such as how Turkey’s new Middle East policy will affect Turkey-European Union relations; if relations with the EU and relations with the Middle East are complementary to each other; if Turkey is looking increasingly toward the East and south as a reaction to the slow pace of its accession negotiations with the EU; if the policy of zero problems with neighbors is realistic; and what happens if neighbors are at loggerheads with each other.

As the keynote speaker of the conference, Hale, while answering some of those questions, made an analogy and stated that Turkey is in a situation rather like a circus rider who is riding two horses, with one foot on one horse and one foot on the other horse. “If the horses are close and going in the same direction, he does fine. But if the two horses go off in different directions then the rider is in a difficult position and has difficulties standing in the middle,” he said.

He recalled that there were times in the past, too, when Turkish-Israeli relations were not good -- even worse than today. “For example, in the 1970s, there were sharp reactions from the Turkish government to the annexation of East Jerusalem by Israel. At one point, Turkey even broke off diplomatic relations with Israel, but now there is no intention of breaking relations. Relations with Israel are too developed to allow such a thing to happen. You have Hamas and a divided Palestine on the one side, and the rightist government in Israel on the other. That makes, for the time being, two horses going in opposite directions,” he said.

But Hale said one should be cautious because there are mixed signals coming from Israel. “For example, Avigdor Lieberman [Israel’s hard-line foreign minister] will be quite happy if things get worse because he doesn’t want to settle the dispute over the Golan Heights, for example. On the other hand, you have [President Shimon] Peres, who has recently invited [Turkish President Abdullah] Gül to Israel. We have two different messages that send mixed signals from Israel,” he said.

Answering a question about the US administration’s position regarding all these developments, he said it depends on who you are talking to in the US administration. “In Congress the pro-Israeli lobby is still extremely powerful, but I get the impression that the Obama administration would like to have a more standoffish policy towards Israel. I am not sure if Hillary Clinton agrees with that. There are mixed signals about that, too,” he replied.

 Professor Hale, while commenting on Turkey-EU relations and Turkey-Middle East relations, stated that some people in Turkey might think that the improvement in Turkey-Middle East relations is a response to frustration with the troubled process of accession to the European Union, but Turkish policymakers insist that these ties are simply strengthening each other. “In the first place, Arab countries are supporting Turkey to join the EU because they see this as a way of getting a fellow country into the EU. That is important for them. The other thing is that Turkey’s soft power depends largely on maintaining its good ties with the EU. In other words, it is through its relationship with the EU that it has access to European capital, European technology, etc. All these are helping develop relations with Middle East countries. I see these policies as complementary,” he said.

 He added that as a reaction to the slow place of talks with the EU, Turkey’s relations with Russia may improve, too. “The reaction to the slowdown of relationships with the EU could not be just for developing relations with Middle East countries but also with Russia,” he said.