Electricity consumption to rise by 4 percent in 2010

According to the Energy Ministry’s report, which forecasts energy consumption and future projects in 2010, this year’s demand for electricity has been the second lowest in the last 30 years after that during the 2001 crisis. Because the economy contracted due to global financial crisis in 2009, the demand for oil and natural gas also suffered a sharp decline. Taking this into account, primary energy consumption is expected to decrease by 6.7 percent by the year’s end, falling from 106.5 million tons equivalent of petroleum (Mtep) consumed last year to 99.4 Mtep by the end of 2009. As no significant change in primary energy production is expected to take place, primary energy import levels will improve this year, the report stated.

Energy consumption per capita will also decrease from last year’s level of 1.42 Mtep to 1.31 Mtep by the end of this year, according to the report. Contrary to the steady upward trend seen in natural gas consumption in recent years, the amount of natural gas consumed is expected to decline by 9 percent this year in comparison last year’s consumption to reach 30.8 Mtep. Hydraulic energy production, on the other hand, is expected to rise by 9.1 percent by year-end thanks to regular rainfall, the report stated.

Electricity demand down due to crisis

The report stressed the influence of the global financial crisis on energy demand, explaining that electricity consumption was $6 billion kWh below the forecasted amount last year and this year its is expected to decline by further $4 billion over the 2008 figures. Accordingly, electricity consumption is predicted to decline by 1.8 percent this year compared to electricity consumption in 2008, decreasing from 198.4 billion kWh to 194.8 billion kWh by the year’s end.

Consumption of primary energy and electricity is predicted to start increasing again by 2010, in line with the economic recovery process. Primary energy consumption is expected to rise by approximately 6.5 percent and to reach 105.8 Mtep in 2010, while primary energy consumption per capita is expected to increase by 5.3 percent and to 1.38 Mtep. Primary energy production is predicted to enjoy a small growth, increasing from 28.4 Mtep this year to 29.2 Mtep in 2010. Thus, next year 72.4 percent of primary energy needs are expected to be met by imports.

The report foresaw that electricity consumption will rise by about 4 percent, increasing from this year’s consumption of 194.3 billion kWh to 202 billion kWh next year. Accordingly, electricity consumption per capita will be up from 2,565 kWh in 2009 to 2,637 kWh in 2010. Of the anticipated rise in electricity production, 75 percent will be provided by natural gas-fired power plants. The shares of electricity that will be produced by natural gas-fired power plants, coal-fired power plants and hydraulic power plants are 49.1 percent, 20.1 percent and 17.8 percent, respectively. The report estimates the share of wind and geothermal electricity production to be 1.3 percent. The sale of electricity distribution companies is also expected to be completed in 2010.

According to the report, the evaluation process of the tender for a nuclear energy power plant will be completed in a bid to decrease dependency on natural gas for energy. Legislation to regulate and audit nuclear energy operations will be established and an independent institution will be created to oversee this task.

A draft law will be prepared to make some changes to the natwural gas market, enabling private sector companies to import natural gas and to assure the liberalization of the market. An agency to stock oil in the event of crisis periods and ensure the efficient use of this stock will also be established, according to the report.