May 2011 earliest date for polls with snap elections unlikely

Taking into consideration the falls in the stock markets due to the rumors of an early election, the AK Party has denied the possibility of an early election in the fall of 2010. The AK Party plans to hold the election on July 17, 2011, as scheduled. However, the election might be held in May or early June in 2011 at the earliest.

The debate picked up momentum when news reports said Erdoğan and Baykal discussed early elections during a brief conversation they held during Republic Day ceremonies. “No one would know what you are up to,” said a sarcastic Baykal, hinting that Erdoğan’s AK Party could call early elections next year. “Yes, you are right. Anything can happen,” Erdoğan reportedly replied. Erdoğan later dismissed categorically that he had discussed the prospects of an early election with Baykal. But Baykal said the conversation as reported by the media was what he and Baykal discussed, although he admitted that Erdoğan might have thought that the conversation was about the government’s Kurdish initiative, not about early polls, as Erdoğan said.

However, Erdoğan was not happy with the rumors of an early election: “Early elections are contrary to my basic principles. Elections are held as scheduled in our term. At best, they might be held two or three months earlier than their due dates. The election will be held on its due date. Those who circulate the rumors about an early election do not think about this country and the damage they are doing to it. Have you ever wondered what losses these rumors have caused during the last two days?” Erdoğan said on the weekend.

Following the prime minister’s remarks, the CHP leader told a newspaper that the election will be held in May 2011. While this date means early elections for Baykal, it does not for Erdoğan, who, ahead of the July 22, 2007, elections had disclosed that he did not approve of elections being held in the heat of July.

It is unlikely that the government will set a date later than July 2011 for the election. Indeed, under the Constitution and the election laws, an election can be postponed only in the case of war. For this reason, the CHP leader is sure that the government will not postpone it to a later date. Baykal is also aware that Erdoğan is not in favor of holding an election in July and therefore predicts that an early election might be held in May 2011.

AK Party leader Erdoğan believes that Baykal has unnecessarily rekindled the early election rumors and intends to undermine the country’s recovering economy, so he put an end to these rumors during an address to the nation. Noting that holding the election two or three months earlier cannot be considered an early election, Erdoğan stated that the election might be held between May and June 2011.

Kapusuz: No early election

AK Party Deputy Chairman and Ankara deputy Salih Kapusuz denied rumors of early election. “We certainly are not considering an early election. We have closed our doors to suggestions or proposals about it. The prime minister said that taking into consideration the temperatures in July, the election might be held one month earlier or later. He had the scorching heat in mind when saying this. However, the opposition has made a big mistake in perceiving this to mean an early election. Now that the opposition tends to perceive it as an early election, we will hold the election on the first Sunday before July 22, i.e., on July 17, 2011. Indeed, Turkey has already proven that it can hold an election in July,” he said.

Kapusuz argued that Baykal is unable to keep up with the dizzying agenda of Turkey and therefore tries to change the agenda, and that the CHP management’s opposition to the Kurdish initiative has created great disappointment among the party’s voter base.

“CHP leader Baykal has no words left to say and he is trying to hold on to his supporters with the early election rhetoric. Because the Kurdish initiative has created big disillusion within the CHP’s voter base, Baykal is trying to hold his supporters together with an early election discourse. But he is trying in vain. With the AK Party in government, the early election era has ended. They said five years is a long period of time and we have reduced it to four years. From this time on, the era of early elections has ended in Turkey. With our government in Turkey, the era of holding early elections one or one-and-half years early has ended,” he said.