Deadlock in Kurdish initiative could trigger early elections

The initiative will not be completely put off, but it will move in low gear. With a new and civil constitution package put on hold due to insufficient support in Parliament to pass the package, the government could hold elections in 2010 instead of 2011.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who wrote a letter to Republican People's Party (CHP) leader Deniz Baykal to ask for a meeting to discuss the initiative, gave up hopes on the main opposition after Baykal insisted the meeting be recorded. The way the Democratic Society Party (DTP), which supports the initiative, greeted Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) members who surrendered to Turkey from northern Iraq also infuriated Erdoğan.

Failing to win the expected support of the CHP, Erdoğan decided it was necessary to implement the democratization package as part of a long-term plan. Following an assessment meeting with Chief of General Staff Gen. İlker Başbuğ, the government decided to temporarily shelve the Kurdish initiative. But this does not mean it will completely forego its plan; instead, it means the process will move ahead slowly.

Erdoğan sees the Kurdish initiative as not having been properly explained to the public and made his first visit to Erzurum and Ağrı as part of a plan to visit 50 provinces to promote the initiative. During his visits Erdoğan will explain to the public who is responsible for sabotaging the process. There are two parties the Erdoğan will target: one is the CHP and the other the DTP.

The prime minister will explain that the DTP's greeting of PKK militants as if they were heroes had complicated the process. Erdoğan, who announced that the government has delayed preparations for the arrival of PKK members from Europe, will wait for families that have lost children to the PKK to intensify their outrage at the DTP and the PKK.

While explaining that the PKK thrives on this deadlock and does not want peace and tranquility to come, Erdoğan will be careful to not pay attention to the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) during this period.

Upon returning from his recent trip to Pakistan, Erdoğan plans to attend two rallies in two southeastern provinces on the same day. While he will comply with an action plan prepared by the AK Party's public relations department, Erdoğan's strongest argument will focus on the terror organization that thrives on blood and war and its rival extreme nationalist parties and groups.

EU process to gain speed

With most of the Kurdish initiative facing an impasse and the deadlock over the new constitution package, it seems the government's plans for 2010 will not go through. It is for this reason that the government has decided to focus on the EU harmonization process instead and plans to pass all EU harmonization laws that have been waiting in Parliament since 2007 in the new year.

While Erdoğan's changes to his party administration signaled a revival of the party's 2003 reformist spirit, the prime minister is expected to give momentum to the reform process that has been moving foreword at a snail's pace. The government will work hard to implement long awaited laws so that it can enter the next general election with a long list of accomplishments.

After reforms required by the EU harmonization process are implemented, the government will take the pulse of the nation over the Kurdish initiative. The government is expected to make a new effort at the beginning of next year. In the event that it fails to find the support it needs, the government will postpone the democratization package just as it postponed the constitutional package and start preparing for elections. Whether the elections will be held according to schedule or earlier depends on developments that take place during this period.

Speaking to Today's Zaman, AK Party parliamentary group deputy chairman Bekir Bozdağ underlined that the party will not give up on the democratization package just because the opposition does not support it. “The top management of political parties may be against this initiative, but we are not going to only pay attention to the top management. We know that the bases of those parties support the package and we know that after a while pressure will be put on the management from the bottom. The process may have been extended but we have not and will not give up on the democratization package,” Bozdağ said. He also underlined that the government is not thinking about holding early elections.