EBRD, which revised down the 2009 economic forecasts for central and eastern European countries, expects fragile recovery in 2010.
EBRD, which revised it's projection of contraction rate for Turkey in 2009 by 0.5 percent down to -6 percent, estimates central and eastern European countries to contract by an average of 6.3 percent following steep output declines in the first half of the year.
EBRD says signs of positive growth in the third quarter of 2009 suggests that the recession is now bottoming out in many countries, noting however that any upturn in 2010 was likely to be fragile and patchy.
"It is also clear that the social costs of the global economic crisis are only likely to be felt in earnest next year, when corporate bankruptcies and unemployment will continue to rise. Growth over the medium term in the EBRD region is also likely to be below the trend experienced over the last decade," said EBRD Chief Economist Erik Berglof.
Although EBRD revised its projections for average year on year growth for 2010 up to 2.5 percent --1.5 percent higher than its May forecasts-- it sees this mostly as a reflection of the recovery from a deeper than anticipated downturn in the first half of this year, rather than a more vigorous economy during 2010.
EBRD projects a growth rate of 3.0 percent for Turkey, 0.5 percent above the average growth rate projected for all transition countries.
