Letter diplomacy, early elections and referendum

But an amendment made to the legislation on electing the president by popular vote following a referendum held in 2007 has led to a particular question: Will the next presidential and general elections be held according to the previous legislation -- in other words, every seven and five years, respectively -- or according to the amended version of the law -- every five and four years, respectively?

Justice and Development Party (AK Party) executives argued that the presidential and parliamentary elections held before the referendum would have to abide by the legislation that was in effect at that time, meaning the president would be in office for seven years and the next parliamentary elections would be held after five years. Spokesmen for the opposition, however, insisted that the new legislation be applied and argued that the next presidential elections should be held after five years and the parliamentary elections after four. But Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan put an end to the debate by announcing that the elections would be held according to the new legislation.

After pointing out that the 2007 elections were held on July 22 due to necessity, Erdoğan indicated that the next elections, slated for 2011, could be held in May instead of July. Republican People's Party (CHP) leader Deniz Baykal also underlined that holding the next elections in May could be possible and informed his party about the impending early elections. However, political experts and analysts note there is nothing significant about holding the 2011 elections two months earlier than planned and suggest that the election may even be held in 2010. Moreover, Deputy Prime Minister Bülent Arınç has said a referendum might also be possible in 2010. Readers will know that the possibility of early elections and a referendum in 2010 was first mentioned in Café Capital as a rumor circulating in the corridors of Parliament. After debates gained momentum, I conducted another interview with the friend who first shared information with me about the rumor.

My friend, who shared his thoughts on the recent developments without any hesitation, said: “Erdoğan is a very lucky politician. Of course, his political wit and experience as well as his charismatic leadership are important; however, without the help of luck, these maneuvers would not have yielded such positive results. The future of his next effort would not have been as bright.” He also added that the opposition's inability to present a viable alternative to the AK Party was another important luck factor. So how will the democratic initiative impact the early election process? Isn't the lack of reference to the initiative as the “Kurdish initiative,” which was used when the endeavor was initially launched, a sign of political weakness?

My friend explained that to the contrary these were planned steps of the process, saying: “The prime minister, who constantly underlines that the initiative is not a package but a process, is stretching it out over time. If they had not embarked on this journey with the name ‘Kurdish initiative,' it would not have attracted this much attention and the agenda would not have focused on the initiative to this extent. If the process was not started with the expression ‘Kurdish initiative,' then ultimately the ‘democratic initiative' would have coincided with the unfinished constitutional change debates in 2008 and would have fallen off the agenda. But the scope was expanded step by step. Public expectations were successfully increased, and hope was incited among people. Meanwhile, why the Nationalist Movement Party [MHP] was placed in an offside position, and the CHP was pushed into a corner.” Although both CHP and MHP executives disagree, deputies from both parties concede that the process could turn against them. A friend of mine who is a political expert said “letters” play an important role when there are breaking points in politics and voiced approval of the process. Lacking concrete suggestions, Erdoğan's letter to Baykal has placed the CHP leader in a tough spot. One of the parameters that will influence Erdoğan's early election-referendum strategy is Baykal's response.

Turkey determined to solve its tax problem Struggling to reduce the size of the unregistered economy, Turkey is determined to solve its tax problem. This determination reveals itself very clearly in discussions with economic bureaucrats, who are preparing to take very important steps to that end. For example, they are getting ready to set up an interactive Web page to ensure public support on the issue. Citizens will be asked to support the government's effort to fight against the unregistered economy. The chief objective is to build “tax awareness” among the public. Under a protocol signed by the Finance Ministry and the Education Ministry, “tax awareness” will be a subject taught in public schools. The goal is to make people more aware of paying taxes, like actors in American movies who boast about being taxpaying citizens. In fact, if necessary, the number of people who actually pay taxes will be increased by ending the practice of withholding taxes. This will enable the government to develop stronger auditing policies for those who do not pay their taxes. It is also expected that in addition to building tax awareness, companies and holdings will be audited more. Senior bureaucrats seem to already be tackling the problem. They are focusing on every path big companies can take to evade taxes. Big companies that don't want to pay taxes hire experts that know the loopholes in the system. Of course this doesn't mean that every tax expert or former financial expert working for a big company is developing a strategy to evade taxes. But those who are have been identified and are being closely monitored. The path Doğan Yayın Holding, which is being accused of tax evasion, will pursue from now on could serve as an important turning point in this matter.