Fear of losing votes prevents DTP from backing reforms

Pundits say competition between the AK Party and the DTP and the DTP's fear of losing votes are key factors causing the DTP to be reluctant to give full support to the government's initiative. Over the weekend, both the AK Party and the DTP held their congresses in Ankara, and the messages in both the congresses were about the initiative.

In his speech at the congress Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan reiterated his party's determination to respect all diversity in Turkey and its ambition to improve the country's democratic standards, but he did not give any details of the initiative.

One day after the AK Party congress, the DTP held its own and set conditions for backing the initiative. DTP Chairman Ahmet Türk in his speech called for swift changes to the Constitution and dialogue with Abdullah Öcalan, the leader of the terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), who is now serving life in prison on Imrali Island located in the Marmara Sea.

The government rejects any sort of dialogue with Öcalan, saying there will be no discussions with terrorists. But during the DTP congress some DTP supporters chanted slogans in favor of Öcalan and the PKK.

As for the second condition, constitutional changes, they may prove to be less problematic but still difficult to implement given unyielding opposition on the part of the two main opposition parties in Parliament. The AK Party, even with the support of the DTP, does not have enough seats in Parliament to change the Constitution.

Türk also underlined that they have some concerns regarding the initiative. “It should be very well understood that the DTP and the Kurds will not be the side that obstructs the process, but if the process turns into a process of keeping Kurds in suspense or a process of delaying the solution, we will oppose it,” he said at the congress.

Experienced independent politician Haşim Haşimi said despite the skeptical attitude and conditional support of the DTP most Kurds are aware of the difficulties that the government is facing and are hoping for success. “The party that maintains a positive attitude will be the winner at the end. It is hard, but I guess some votes for the DTP will go to AK Party again,” he told Today's Zaman.

He recalled the atmosphere in the last general elections in July 2007 and the local elections in March 2009.

“At the general elections there was some hope that the AK Party would address the Kurdish issue, so Kurds voted for the party. Then, the AK Party did not address the issue and the DTP turned the local elections into a quasi referendum for the solution. The voters under the influence of “referendum” pressure and, disappointed about the AK Party, began to again support the DTP. Now they are leaning towards the AK Party again,” he said.

Haşimi said the Kurds are thinking along the same line as the DTP when it comes to constitutional changes, but some of them are aware that acknowledging Öcalan as an interlocutor in reform efforts is a radical approach and that changing the Constitution is not easy.

“Kurds are aware of the fact that some circles within the state are resisting change, for example the judiciary. So they are trying to be patient,” Haşimi argued.

He also added that during the process it is normal that two rival parties in the predominantly Kurdish populated areas will be critical towards each other, that time will show the real intentions of the two parties and that Kurds are patient to see it.

Şah İsmail Bedirhanoğlu, the chairman of the Southeastern Anatolia Businessmen's Association (GÜNSİAD), agrees with Haşimi. According to his observations, the Kurds strongly believe the sincerity of the prime minister.

“Even among DTP circles there are some people who strongly believe the sincerity of the prime minister. It is hard to guess, but I think the votes of the AK Party increased by 10 percent in the region,” he told Today's Zaman. Bedirhanoğlu added that the insistence of the DTP about the Constitution is right but engaging Öcalan in the reform process is not realistic.

“The DTP has to decide if their priority is a solution to the Kurdish question or if it is a solution to the Öcalan problem. If the first one is true, they will support the government,” he said.

According to Tarhan Erdem from private pollster company Konda, it is difficult to say if there will be any votes exchanged between the AK Party and the DTP.

“I think it is not that significant for the time being. The important question for the whole country is what will be the behavior of the conservative nationalistic votes of the AK Party,” he told Today's Zaman.

Erdem added that in his opinion the DTP does not want to be a part of the dialogue in the initiative so it is placing the ball into the government's court, calling for dialogue with Öcalan.

“If the DTP will be a part of the dialogue it has to make concessions. If it does that, it will be opposed by the PKK and by some radicals in the party. This is why the DTP is acting in the way it is acting now,” Erdem said.