Germany’s election results not positive for Turkey
by
ALİ YURTTAGÜL*

To understand the importance that the election results, which can be interpreted to mean that Berlin will not support Turkey’s membership “for the time being,” have for Turkey, it would be beneficial to take a closer look at the political changes and developments that took place in Germany in these latest elections.

There are two important factors related to the formation of the new majority government. The first factor is that while the conservative CDU has managed to sustain its existence as the great “people’s party” by losing only a limited number of votes and garnering 33.8 percent of the vote, the FDP secured the biggest victory in the history of Germany by winning 14.6 percent of the vote and triggering a fundamental shift in politics by becoming the new coalition partner.

On the other hand, with votes plunging by around 20 percent in recent years, the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) suffered a historic defeat, winning only around 23 percent of the vote. The Left Party’s significant and the Greens’ limited rise in votes were not enough to balance out the SPD’s vote losses to establish a theoretical SPD-the Left-Greens coalition.

Political shifts in many directions

While the latest elections have opened the way for a right-wing coalition in Germany, it also signals at many political shifts going in different directions. The first and most important political shift occurred between the CDU and the SPD. These two parties became increasingly similar to each other and became oriented toward winning centralist votes. The CDU took close to 1 million votes from its coalition partner, the SPD, and managed to limit its vote loss in that way.

Winning more than 30 percent of the vote, the CDU is Germany’s sole mass party. But despite this, it is no longer the country’s only governing party, and unlike before, it no longer has 50, or in some states 60, percent of the vote. Forget winning enough votes to become the sole ruling party like Turkey’s Justice and Development Party (AK Party), it was considered a big success that it was able to garner enough votes to set up a government with the FDP. If the CDU, which won a parliamentary majority with the extraordinary victory of the FDP, wants to put on a similar performance in the next election, it must have successful policies -- especially on economic and social issues.

Certainly it will not be easy to create a balance between a liberal economy and social policy in the new government, in which the liberals will be more active. The new coalition, which trade unions have a concerned eye over, will not be able to easily sustain the social peace that prevailed in the country while the SPD was in power.

The former coalition also aimed to resolve the unemployment problem with an economic development policy, but it was unfortunately not very successful in its endeavor. The FDP, which focused its election campaign on economic policies and promised to boost economic demand and investment by making tax cuts for middle and high income earners, garnered support especially from the middle class. Many analysts reckon that although Germans believe a liberal economy was the cause of the banking crisis, they may have wanted to give the FDP a chance because they believe liberals that “understand the economy” can devise policies that can overcome the crisis.

Germans did not believe social rights would improve with the FDP and the expectation that the CDU and the chancellor would take up social issues had a bigger role in the election campaign. The plunge of SPD votes from 44 percent to 23 percent after 11 years in power stemmed most certainly from endorsing harsh social reforms.

But the second important factor, the transition of Germany’s political party system from a three-party system to a five-party system, played an important role in the SPD’s loss of votes. Following the Greens, which tried to win the support of SPD constituents, a new left party that won the support of trade unions and garnered 11.9 percent of the vote in the election led to the SPD’s defeat.

In a sense, SPD votes partially disappeared to this party on the left and the CDU in the center. The problem stems from the melting away of the SPD and the left movement’s social base. The base of this party, which emerged in the second half of the 19th century as the party of the industrial society and workers’ movement, is becoming increasingly smaller as the service sector becomes more active in Europe. In countries such as Germany, France and England, the industrial sector accounts for 11 and 13 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), down from around 50 percent. The service sector, which constitutes up to 80 percent of economic activity, poses a risk to the existence of socialist and trade union movements and therefore dissolved the constituents of social democrats in these countries.

The success of the Left Party (11.9 percent) and the Greens (10.7 percent), which voters put in the opposition, was limited in the elections. One important problem the Greens will need to discuss more so then the Left Party is why only 2 percent of the 30 percent of voters that changed their political preferences knocked on their door. An in-depth debate is expected on why unlike Daniel Cohn-Bendit’s party, which won 16.2 percent in France, the Greens could not do the same in Germany.

While the Greens managed to make the public and other parties more sensitive about environmental issues, despite the fact that the Greens played an important role in influencing other parties to address environmental issues in their election campaign, the issue of why the Greens were not as successful as the liberals and the Left Party is an important question. Alongside the SPD, which launched the Helsinki process that opened the door to negotiations with the European Union, the Greens’ distance to power is not a positive development for Turkey. It is for this reason that Turkey will need to interpret the program of the new coalition government very carefully.

CDU and FDP not warm to EU enlargement

To examine the new government’s policy on Turkey, we need to take a closer look at the parties’ election programs. For now, neither the CDU nor the FDP look favorably on EU enlargement. The priority of both parties is the intensification of local EU reforms and the integration of 12 new member countries. While both parties emphasize all candidate countries must meet the Copenhagen criteria, they also underline that “membership is not an automatic process” and point to the EU’s integration capacity. The only difference between these two countries, which both argue that Turkey is not ready for membership, is that the CDU supports the idea of a “privileged partnership” while the FDP supports open-ended negotiations for Turkey’s EU membership.

The liberals, which hung banners that read “EU-Turkey Yes” with the Greens during the 2004 European Parliament elections and supported the start of negotiations with Turkey, could possibly reconsider their policy on Turkey and support ongoing negotiations. Chancellor Angela Merkel could distance herself from French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s line by showing new Foreign Affairs Minister Guido Westerwelle as an excuse. With the liberals’ “pro-Atlantic” position and their close interest in US President Barack Obama’s Turkey policy, there will be major shifts in Germany’s ongoing “balanced” policy. It is for these reasons that we will need to carefully read the government’s program and understand whether the term “privileged partnership” will enter the government’s program.

The results of the election are not essentially a negative development, but the absence of a positive perception and support toward Turkey’s membership as there was with the SPD and the Greens coalition is. As is known by many, politicians who paved the way for Turkey’s EU negotiations were Gerhard Schröder and Joschka Fischer. Many obstacles have been overcome with Germany’s determined support. However, positive winds are not blowing from the new coalition government in Berlin, albeit there is no expectation that winds will get any colder. Germany is in a position that can influence the course of negotiations between Turkey and the EU. Thus, while the new government may not adopt a new stance concerning its Turkey policy, it would not be misleading to believe that it will encourage opposition.

Despite all these valid concerns, the political transformation observed in Germany is, generally speaking, a positive process. The most important piece of data from the elections concerning Turkey is that Turkey and Turks were not targeted in election campaigns and that most people did not vote for extreme right-wing parties. Turkey is no longer a political problem in Germany as it was during Helmut Kohl’s period or as is the case in France today. If we take into consideration that Germany’s economic and international interests require close relations with Turkey, then who knows, warm winds could start blowing from Berlin four years from now or perhaps even sooner.