Premier Erdoğan to reshuffle AK Party at upcoming congress

In the congress, to be held at the ASKİ sports hall in Ankara, Prime Minister Erdoğan is expected to completely revise the party management, citing the party's partial failure in the local elections held on March 29. Just as he removed Kemal Unakıtan, Hüseyin Çelik and Kürşad Tüzmen from office after the elections in order to prevent criticism of the Cabinet, Erdoğan will make similar changes in the party's administration.

In the post-election period, Erdoğan has also reshuffled the party's parliamentary group, but postponed the changes he was planning to make regarding party management to this congress. There is still uncertainty, however, as to who will be removed from power, because Prime Minister Erdoğan will have exclusive power in the party management reshuffle for the first time during this congress. In the past, he would consult with Abdullah Gül as the party's second-in-command.

After establishing the party in 2000 with Abdullah Gül and Bülent Arınç, Erdoğan led the party to election victory and established a single-party government on Nov. 3, 2002, and since then, he has tried to maintain balance among the founding fathers of the party with respect to the composition of the party management and the Cabinet. However, Gül's election as president disrupted this balance, and in order counteract this, Erdoğan appointed Arınç, who faded into obscurity after serving as parliament speaker, as deputy prime minister. He also appointed Taner Yıldız, who is close to Gül, energy and natural resources minister as a nice gesture toward Gül.

Since Gül is president and Arınç is deputy prime minister, both important duties, Erdoğan will not have to try to strike a balance between Gül and Arınç in the party management. In other words, for the first time since 2000, Erdoğan will be able to make changes to the party management solely to his liking and will assert his domination of the party.

The prime minister will first tinker with the composition of the party's Central Decision and Administration Board (MKYK). Erdoğan is expected to replace more than half of the 50-member MKYK, with a view to recruiting new and young people to the party. Erdoğan has already done this with the management of the party's parliamentary group and he is likely to gather young deputies as well as non-parliamentary figures for the MKYK.

Erdoğan's most radical changes will be to the party's 16-member Central Executive Board (MYK), and these changes will give hints not only about which party executives are held responsible for the disappointing results in the March 29 local elections, but also about his plans for the post-2010 period. Twelve of the 50 MKYK members will be elected to the MYK, which is the party's highest management body. Four deputy chairmen of the parliamentary group are ex officio members of the MYK, while the remaining 12 seats of the MYK are now the subject of heated lobbying by many party members.

Because of the loss of the need to craft a political balance between Gül and Arınç, Erdoğan will be able to make changes to the MYK singlehandedly. There are reports that Erdoğan will change seven of the 12 members of the MYK. Deputy Chairman Edip Uğur, who is responsible for the financial and administrative affairs of the party, and Deputy Chairman Abdülkadir Aksu, who is responsible for the party's political affairs, top the list of names whose seats will probably be protected in the party administration.

It is unclear whether Erdoğan will replace deputy chairmen Bülent Gedikli and Reha Denemeç or Deputy Chairwoman Edibe Sözen. There is speculation that Gedikli and Denemeç, who have been serving in the party's administration since it was founded, could be asked to step down.

Erdoğan is expected to name Antalya deputy Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu as the principal deputy chairman responsible for foreign affairs. Çavuşoğlu had been serving as the acting deputy chairman since Egemen Bağış became a state minister.

It seems almost certain that former Education Minister Hüseyin Çelik will have a place in the party administration. There are reports that Çelik could be assigned to the post of deputy chairman responsible for political affairs or to the post of deputy chairman responsible for promotion and media. Deputy Chairman Aksu is currently considered the second-in-command of the party. While Aksu is expected to keep his position, changes to assist his duties are being considered.

There is speculation that Erdoğan's changes to the party administration will be an indication of whether early elections will be held instead of the scheduled 2011 general elections. Erdoğan could consider holding an early election in 2010 if the Kurdish initiative is successful.

Erdoğan's most important changes to the party administration will involve organizational affairs. It is very likely that the current deputy chairman responsible for organizational affairs, Haluk İpek, a former Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) member, will be replaced. Following the March 29 local elections, Erdoğan acknowledged that the performance of the party's local organizations fell short of expectations.

Erdoğan appears to have blamed the organizational affairs chairmanship for the results of a survey conducted within the party's local branches revealing that 30 percent of the party's local branches still oppose the Kurdish initiative. It is for this reason that Erdoğan, who plans to explain the Kurdish initiative to local organizations thoroughly and properly, will personally take the first step to this end at the party congress.

Erdoğan is expected to get rid of those in the party administration who he holds responsible for the partial failure in the local elections in terms of not being able to win the expected votes in some cities and towns. Among those likely to go is Deputy Chairman Hüseyin Tanrıverdi, who is responsible for the party's local administrations. In a surprise loss for the AK Party, Manisa, the province Tanrıverdi represents in Parliament, was taken by MHP. Tanrıverdi is expected to pay for the party's defeat.

Other speculations concerning the congress involve Erdoğan's forecasts for 2012, the year in which Gül's tenure will expire. There are reports that Erdoğan may make plans to run for the presidency with his new administration. Since the next president will be elected by popular vote, Erdoğan is expected to make his decision on whether to run for president depending on the results of the general elections in 2011.