An unopposed Merkel to create more problems for Turkey

Since 2005 Germany has been ruled by a grand coalition comprising the CDU/CSU -- led by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who strictly opposes Turkey's full-fledged membership in the EU -- and the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD).

One of the latest polls ahead of the vote, conducted by FORSA Gesellschaft für Sozialforschung und Statistische Analysen mbH, suggests that Merkel has garnered more support than her closest rival, SPD candidate Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who is still the foreign minister of the Merkel-led government and who was the chief of the Chancellery for the seven-year term of former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, by a razor-thin majority.

Thirty-five percent of applicants support Merkel for another term whereas Steinmeier has 26 percent. The survey also showed that 13 percent back the FDP. Eleven and 10 percent of people surveyed expressed support for The Greens and The Left, respectively.

A glance at the results can help one push the argument that the CDU and its sister party, the CSU, alongside the FDP have nearly as much public support as their rivals. As opposed to the left's 47 percent, the poll shows conservatives and liberals have 48 percent of the vote. However, a statement of SPD leader Franz Müntefering in which he clearly rejected a coalition with The Left, eliminated the possibility of a significant challenge for the current chancellor.

The social democrats have been harshly criticized for missing the opportunity to utilize their position in government to balance Merkel's rightist and nationalist policies in a wide range of areas from taxation and social security to immigration policy and Germany's stance toward Turkey's EU bid.

Commenting on the failures of the SPD, Cenk Alican, a member of the Turkish-German Student Union in Munich, said the SPD was unsuccessful in keeping its promises, adding, “The SPD pledged to again allow dual citizenship, yet when the amendment was voted on in the Bundestag, most SPD deputies rejected the change, leading to a loss of support by non-ethnic German citizens.”

At this point, the 53-year-old Steinmeier and Müntefering have been striving to prevent a break in the grand coalition in this election, which means protecting the SPD's position in the Bundestag. If Steinmeier fails to obtain his election goals, it is evident that Merkel will form a center-right/liberal coalition with the FDP in which Merkel, who is known for her anti-immigration inclinations, is expected to find herself enough room to maneuver in to pursuing her policies.

“Merkel's rightist policies will not be balanced by liberals -- first because the FDP will not be able to gain the same standing with the CDU as the SPD, and second, liberals will fail to put up an opposition to Merkel's policies due to their pragmatist approach. Therefore, if the coalition scenario is realized between the FDP and the CDU, it is highly possible for Merkel to toughen her anti-Turkey tone,” said İsmail Ertuğ, a member of European Parliament's social democrat bloc from the SPD. When asked whether Germany's immigration policy will change under an FDP/CDU coalition, Ertuğ emphasized that he does not expect any positive steps regarding political rights of foreigners and dual citizenship. “There may even be restrictions in terms of obtaining German citizenship for foreigners,” he added.

The FDP has yet to oppose Turkey's full membership in the union in principle, but the party has underlined Turkey's shortcomings in membership negotiations in its party program on the issue of EU enlargement. Ertuğ pointed to the latest report prepared by the Confederation of German Employers' Associations (BDA), which is known for its affinity for FDP policies, and emphasized that in the report the BDA strictly opposed Turkey's full membership in the EU for the reason that Turkey's developing economy would threaten its power in the market.

Dismissing the claims that FDP would oppose Turkey's membership in the EU, Dr. Daniel Volk, a member of the Bundestag, reiterated that the FDP supports in principle Turkey's full EU membership under the condition that it fulfills EU requirements for membership. Volk added that he does not expect a radical change in Germany's policy of opposing Turkey's membership when it comes to a possible FDP/CDU coalition after the vote.