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New German government may cloud Turkey’s EU hopes
Merkel has long favored a "privileged partnership" for Turkey that stops short of full EU membership, but agreed not to actively thwart the bid while she was in a coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD) over the past four years.
If she is able to ditch the SPD after the Sept. 27 vote, as most opinion polls suggest, analysts expect her to step up her rhetoric against Turkey's bid, forming an influential front on the issue, together with French President Nicolas Sarkozy.
Her partners of choice after the vote are the business-friendly Free Democrats (FDP), who do not oppose Ankara's bid but are seen as less supportive than the SPD. The FDP's election program cites "major deficits" in Turkish efforts to meet EU membership criteria.
"From a Turkish perspective, if the SPD were out of the German government coalition it would be problematic.
Chancellor Merkel's anti-Turkey approach would be even more pronounced and we could see her taking more of a Sarkozy stance," said analyst Wolfango Piccoli, of the Eurasia Group.
Sarkozy and Merkel are the most high profile opponents of Turkey's bid, but both took power after EU countries unanimously agreed to open official accession talks with Turkey in 2005.
Few expect a complete suspension of Turkey's troubled EU bid as this would require unanimity among the 27 EU member states. But more vocal opposition from countries like France and Germany -- home to 2.7 million people of Turkish origin -- could increase discord between Ankara and Brussels and that could hurt Turkey's commitment to reform.
Next government not decisive
Emine Demirbüken-Wegner, a Turkish-born member of Merkel's conservative party, said Turkey needed many more years before it was ready to join the bloc and the next German government's position would not be decisive. "There will be several more German governments between now and the time Turkey is ready to join the EU. Germany and other states agreed to open negotiations with Turkey and now Turkey knows it must fulfill the criteria," she said.
But in Turkey, frustration is mounting in the face of simmering EU doubts about its membership bid. Experts suspect deep-seated EU reservations could ultimately doom the bid and that a harder line from Merkel might bring more clarity to a debate that has been carried out behind the scenes for years, breeding resentment.
"I don't think Turkey will ever be allowed in as a full member," said Hasan Ünal, professor at Bilkent University. "It would be good if Merkel had her preferred partnership as then we wouldn't see a double-sided attitude from Germany. Their stance would be honest."
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