Transatlantic survey: Turkey warming toward US, Europe but still ‘outlier'

According to the annual “Transatlantic Trends 2009” survey conducted in 12 European countries, including Turkey, and in the US, there has been a global upward trend in support for Obama: 50 percent of the Turkish public supported him, compared to 74 percent of people in Western Europe and 69 percent in East Europe. But the Turkish backing for Obama represented a 42 percentage point increase over the approval of former President George W. Bush, which was only at 8 percent last year in Turkey.

“To Europeans, President Obama is certainly no George W. Bush. In 2009, three-in-four (77 percent) respondents in the European Union and Turkey supported the new US leader's handling of international affairs, compared with just one-in-five (19 percent) respondents who approved of the Bush foreign policy in 2008,” the report released by the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) stated.

The report also noted that support jumped 80 percentage points in Germany and 58 percentage points across all of Europe and that no other single annual indicator changed this much in the eight years that the Transatlantic Trends survey has been conducted.

“We see a remarkable shift in transatlantic opinion from the previous administration,” said Craig Kennedy, the GMF president. “With American leadership enjoying unprecedented modern popularity, partners on both sides of the Atlantic have an immense opportunity to cooperate on a range of economic and security issues.”

Turkey is warming toward America, but there is still some way to go, the report states, as 57 percent of the Turkish public worries about Obama's ability to manage international economic problems.

“Nor were Turkish views of America much better,” the report stated. In 2009, only one-in-six Turks had a favorable view of the US, compared with the support of 52 percent of the population in 1999/2000, according to polling for the US State Department. In addition, 42 percent of the Turkish public had a “very unfavorable” view of the US, by far the most negative of all countries included in the Transatlantic Trends survey. Again, only one-in-six Turks, about 16 percent, thought it was desirable for the US to exert strong leadership in world affairs.

‘The Turkish Enigma’

The key findings section of the survey has a chapter specifically on Turkey, “The Turkish Enigma,” which explain Turkish trends in detail. Noting that Turkey is an “outlier,” disaffected with regards to the EU and the US on a range of measures, including their confidence in Obama, backing of US and EU global leadership, attitudes toward Iran, Russia and the security alliance NATO.

When it comes to the question of whether Turkey should be a member of the EU, the Turkish public, which was losing interest in joining the club, has again warmed to the idea as about 48 percent of the population thought membership in the EU would be a “good thing,” up from 42 percent in 2008, although this contrasted sharply with the 73 percent who supported joining in 2004.

Turkish people were also skeptical about their chances of eventual admission to the EU as two-thirds, or 65 percent, thought it was not likely to happen.

Moreover, only 32 percent of the Turkish public held a favorable opinion of the EU and just 26 percent thought it was desirable for Brussels to exert strong leadership in world affairs.

In addition, by almost two-to-one, or 43 percent, Turks thought they should act alone rather than in concert with the EU when asked they were asked to fill in the blank in response to the phrase "Turkey should cooperate most closely with ... ."

"This shows that there is a trend in the Turkish society to act unilaterally," said Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı, the GMF's Ankara office director.

EU members were ambivalent about Turkish membership in the club with 42 percent of the European public thinking it was neither good nor bad. The report noted that the result is in line with earlier findings. A near majority in France, 48 percent, thought accepting Turkey into the EU would be a bad thing, up from 35 percent of the French people who thought that in 2004.

Overall, opposition to Turkish membership had increased in nine of the 11 EU countries surveyed, as more people thought that Turkey's membership in the EU would be a “bad thing” compared to the 2004 report. Sharp increases were noted in France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain.

On the other hand, Americans (41 percent) were twice as supportive of Turkey joining the EU as were EU members.

Ünlühisarcıklı pointed out that on some issues, such as supporting a smaller military presence in Afghanistan and rising concerns about climate change, the Turkish public showed similar attitudes as their European counterparts.

"There is not enough data yet to support a trend in the Turkish policy regarding it becoming more European, but it might be a possibility worth watching," he added.

‘Turkey: reluctant security partner’

The survey noted that for many years, as a member of NATO, Turkey was one of America's staunchest allies. But Turkish support for the US collapsed during the Bush administration, due in large part to disagreement over the Iraq War. In addition, Turkish enthusiasm for NATO was the lowest among NATO members surveyed, notwithstanding rising Turkish anxiety about Russia.

Only 35 percent of the Turkish people thought that NATO was essential to Turkey's security, down from about 53 percent of the Turkish people who valued NATO in 2004.

Moreover, half of the Turkish public (50 percent) lacked confidence in Obama to fight terrorism. Only Americans themselves (53 percent) had less faith in the US president on this issue.

About half of the Turkish population wanted to reduce or to withdraw their troops from Afghanistan, a slightly lower level of such sentiment than found in the EU countries.

On Iran, the survey noted a sharp increase in Turkish willingness to accept Tehran having nuclear weapons. In 2007, only 16 percent of Turkish people found such an outcome acceptable if diplomatic pressure to end the Iranian nuclear program failed. However, 29 percent of Turks in 2009 said this result was acceptable, compared with only 5 percent of Americans and EU members who would accept an Iranian nuclear arsenal.

"The Turkish attitude is different from the EU-US public in regards to Iran. Indeed, this is not in line with Turkish foreign policy, showing that the society needs to be informed more about the issue," Ünlühisarcıklı said.

Transatlantic Trends, a project of the German Marshall Fund of the United States and the Compagnia di San Paolo in Turin, Italy, with additional support from the Fundação Luso-Americana (Portugal), the Fundación BBVA (Spain) and the Tipping Point Foundation (Bulgaria), has measured public opinion in the US and 12 European countries to gauge transatlantic relations through interviews with more than 13,000 people for eight consecutive years.