What does the recent protocol with Armenia mean?
by
GÖKHAN BACIK*

The most striking aspect of the protocol, which was partially published in the media, is undoubtedly the mutual agreement concerning the opening of the common border within two months after the protocol is implemented, as explained in Article 1. This announcement of the intention of the parties confirms that the current stage of Armenian-Turkish relations is irreversible, considering that the preservation of the status quo with respect to the borders was perceived as the biggest obstacle and barrier before making any progress in bilateral relations. Many attempts have been inconclusive because of this barrier. After opening the border, an important obstacle that serves as a tool to perpetuate the problem will have been eliminated. More importantly, the protocol underlines that the parties will make their archives and historical resources available to researchers. With such an engagement, the parties declared that they have adopted a lenient and constructive approach with respect to such a delicate issue. Lastly, the parties' eagerness to open diplomatic missions as underlined in the protocol should be mentioned.

How should this briefly explained text be interpreted? Above all, this short text gives the impression that the parties are eager for an integration deal. In addition to resolving their problems, the parties want to cooperate in the fields of culture, education, economy and transportation. The reason for the emphasis on such concepts in a protocol between two countries whose border still remains closed is obvious: Turkey and Armenia need each other, considering the recently developed projects that will affect the destiny and prosperity of the region. However, two points should be underlined: Turkey and Armenia are not equals in terms of international relations. For this reason, assuming that the protocol will work well, it would not be wrong to argue that Armenia will fall into the sphere of influence of Turkey. Undoubtedly, this will have serious consequences for the entire Caucasus region as well as for Russia and other actors. Secondly, Armenia gets back into international relations with the protocol. At the moment, Armenia is practically separate from the international system because of its isolated profile and weak economy, despite officially being a part of the international world. Relations between Armenia and the international system are carried out via limited channels controlled by Russia. Like Syria rejoined the international system via Turkey, Armenia is trying the same means to integrate with the global world. This may have serious impacts on the culture and political life of Armenia.

Thirdly, Armenian political elites who attempted to improve relations with Turkey likely initiated a process in their country. Rapprochement with a country like Turkey, which is obviously able to integrate and communicate with the world and has visible influence in the web of international relations, will lead to some radical changes in the social and political structure of Armenia. The sub-region that has been emerging under the lead of Turkey is expanding to include Armenia. Fourthly, close ties with a country like Turkey, whose economy attracts a great deal of attention, will provoke the emergence of a more liberal environment in the Caucasus. Considering relations between Turkey and Georgia and the ties between Russia and Georgia, this protocol may start a process of liberalization in the entire Caucasus region. The emergence of an effective and influential Turkish presence that will touch upon Armenia will trigger the political fault lines of the entire region.

The protocol has started a fairly critical psychological process concerning relations between Turkey and Armenia. It should be recalled that any international problem may create fertile ground for some political actors. For this reason, it is possible to expect attempts to disrupt the process of rapprochement between the parties. There are actors whose survival depends on the presence and substance of such problems in both Turkey and Armenia. These actors will try to rely on propaganda suggesting that the protocol is detrimental to their national interests. There is one way to deal with such obstacles: acting swiftly and protecting the process against external harm.