Azerbaijan concerned about Turkish-Armenian rapproachment

The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry made a statement yesterday on its Web site saying, “In principle, it is Turkey's sovereign right to establish relations with Armenia.” However, the statement also emphasized that the issue has a direct relation to Azerbaijan's national interests and “the opening of the border is in direct opposition to Azerbaijani national interests.”

Recalling Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's speech before Azerbaijani deputies at the parliament in mid-May, the statement reads: “The prime minister reassured Azerbaijan that the borders were closed due to Armenia's occupation of Azerbaijani territories. In this respect, Turkey will open the borders only if Armenia withdraws from Azerbaijan's occupied territories.” While the statement did not ensure that Turkey's attempt to normalize relations with Armenia was on track, it clearly stated Turkey's promise not to open the borders.

Elkhan Pokhulov, head of the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry's media department, told Today's Zaman, "Azerbaijan considers the relations between Turkey and Armenia as relations between two sovereign states, yet Azerbaijan's national interests should be considered.” Pokhulov also added that Turkey has declared many times that there cannot be an opening of borders. “If it opens,” Pokhulov stressed, “it is in opposition to Azerbaijan's national interests.” Addressing the question of whether Turkey consulted with Azerbaijan with respect to the issue, Pokhulov said: “Turkey and Azerbaijan constantly inform each other of developments. However, we have no information about whether Turkey informed us of this particular policy.”

“The situation in Azerbaijan will be even worse,” said Rövşen İbrahimov, a professor at Baku Qafqaz University. “It was too sudden,” he said. Two weeks ago Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan vowed that he would not attend the soccer match between Armenia and Turkey in October. Noting the troubling trend with Armenia, the Turkish Foreign Ministry has decided to restart negotiations with Armenia to establish close diplomatic ties. “I believe this is the true success of [Serzh] Sarksyan. Who can now claim that there is a single reason why Turkey should keep the borders closed? The next step is to institute diplomatic relations and then open the borders. Turkey de facto recognizes Armenia and now will de jure recognize it,” he said. He also argued that the Azerbaijani public believes that it once put pressure on Turkey and succeeded and it may do the same again. Questioning the future of the Nabucco project, İbrahimov said: “This fact may also put Nabucco in jeopardy. Azerbaijan may think of selling all its gas to Russia.”

Vefa Guluzade, a prominent expert and former national security advisor to late Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev, said Turkey is playing a dangerous game. Speaking to Today's Zaman, Guluzade said, “Turkey could not stand up to pressure from Russia and the US and thereby has decided to start the negotiations again.” Recalling Hillary Clinton's telephone conversation with Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, Guluzade claimed that instead of behaving on the basis of Clinton's promises, the Turkish government should instead act following the fulfillment of Clinton's promises. Clinton had previously said the American administration would help resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Guluzade said her promises are not real and that during Bill Clinton's tenure, the American administration was too fragile for a strong Armenian lobby in the US. Guluzade also concluded that the Azerbaijani public will explicitly respond to the recent agreement between Turkey and Armenia and that there will be huge disappointment among the Azerbaijani public. The government, in contrast, may keep silent due to international conjecture.