Turkey takes bold step for change of status quo in Caucasus

Davutoğlu was speaking in an interview with the NTV news channel after Armenia and Turkey announced late on Monday that they have agreed to start internal political consultations on the two protocols -- the “Protocol on the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations” and the “Protocol on the Development of Bilateral Relations” -- which have been initiated in the course of their efforts under Swiss mediation.

“The two protocols provide for a framework for the normalization of their bilateral relations within a reasonable timeframe. The political consultations will be completed within six weeks, following which the two protocols will be signed and submitted to the respective Parliaments for the ratification on each side. Both sides will make their best efforts for the timely progression of the ratification in line with their constitutional and legal procedures,” the foreign ministries of Armenia, Switzerland and Turkey said in a joint statement which was released simultaneously.

On April 22, Turkey announced that it had reached an agreement with Armenia on a roadmap for normalizing relations, drawing praise from the United States and deepening concerns in Azerbaijan. During a subsequent visit to Baku, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said Turkey would not open its border with Armenia unless Armenia withdraws its troops from Nagorno-Karabakh, raising doubts over Turkish-Armenian reconciliation in the foreseeable future.

Armenian leaders also criticized Erdoğan for making the normalization of ties with Armenia conditional on a settlement in Nagorno-Karabakh and urged him not to interfere in the settlement process. Turkey was actually one of the first countries to recognize Armenia's independence in 1991. The two countries have been holding closed-door talks for around one-and-a-half years on ways to restore diplomatic relations and open their mutual border, closed by Turkey in 1993 in protest of the Armenian occupation of Azerbaijani territory during a war over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The dispute is further complicated by Armenian claims of genocide at the hands of the Ottoman Empire during the time of World War I, a charge denied by Turkey.

Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan and Turkish President Abdullah Gül are seen during Gül's visit to Yerevan last year.

‘Big peace starts with big dreams’

“The fact that peace is delayed doesn't remove the indispensability of that peace. All big peace starts with big dreams. The biggest obstacle in front of them is prejudice. There is a status quo in the Caucasus at the moment which is not useful any of the three countries -- Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey. Expecting parallel developments in the Armenia-Azerbaijan dispute is part of our vision,” Davutoğlu told NTV.

“A partial normalization will not be sustainable. There must be a comprehensive normalization in the region,” the minister said, urging the international community to display political will for the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute.

Davutoğlu said the upcoming six weeks would be used to explain the details of the recent development regarding the normalization of Armenian-Turkish ties to political party leaders, calling it “an internal consultation process.”

The protocol on the establishment of diplomatic relations can only enter into force after Parliament's approval, hopefully after the six weeks of political consultation. Even if Parliament approves the protocol exactly six weeks later, it will take an additional two months to enter into force.  Ankara regards this period of time as an opportunity to achieve concrete progress regarding the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute.

Right after his remarks concerning the internal consultation process, Davutoğlu referred to the Organization for Security and Cooperation's (OSCE) Minsk Group, which has been mediating for one-and-a-half decades to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute, and said he expected both the Minsk Group and the entire international community, including the European Union, to exert all kinds of efforts to achieve the resolution of the dispute between Baku and Yerevan.

“Turkey's move is sending a very strong message to the international community; it showed great responsibility in trying to resolve the 17-year-old frozen conflict. We want the Caucasus peace to be a permanent item on agenda of the United Nations,” Davutoğlu said.

Especially after this point, the international community should do its part and synchronized efforts should be exerted to resolve disputes in the South Caucasus, he added.

Diplomatic sources told Today's Zaman that on Tuesday Davutoğlu initiated a telephone conversation with his French counterpart, Bernard Kouchner, informing him of the recent developments, while calling for intensified efforts by the OSCE Minsk Group. France is one of the three co-chairs of the group along with Russia and the United States. Later on Tuesday, Davutoğlu was expected to call his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, as well. He had already held a telephone conversation on the issue with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Sunday evening.

A common destiny,  not a soccer game

Prime Minister Erdoğan, meanwhile, also stressed that the protocols which are planned to be signed with Armenia cannot enter into force without Parliament's approval. “This one of the steps we have taken during the process,” Erdoğan told reporters during a meeting with Parliament Speaker Mehmet Ali Şahin at the latter's office. “There is a step for starting internal consultations. It will not be functional as long as it is not approved by the Parliament,” he said.

The boldest step in rapprochement efforts between the two estranged neighbors was taken when President Abdullah Gül visited Yerevan last September to watch a World Cup qualifying game at the invitation of his Armenian counterpart, Serzh Sarksyan. At the time, Gül invited Sarksyan to Turkey to watch the return game.

Sarksyan has recently said he will not accept Gül's invitation to watch the match scheduled to be played in Bursa in around six weeks time, on the Oct. 14, unless Turkey takes “real steps” to reopen its border with Armenia.

When reminded of Sarksyan's remarks and the coincidence about timing of the match, Davutoğlu firmly denied any connection between the recent development and Sarksyan's remarks.

“The recent development has no relation to Sarksyan's recent statements. Mr. Gül went to Yerevan for the match without any preconditions, we expect Mr. Sarksyan to show the same stance regarding the upcoming match in Bursa,” Davutoğlu said.

The minister, meanwhile, referred to remarks delivered in May by Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian, who at the time suggested that it was now Turkey's turn to contribute to the ongoing joint efforts with his country for the normalization of bilateral relations between the two estranged neighbors when he said, “The ball is in Turkey's court now.”

“The ball is common, the pitch is common, the region is common and the destiny is common. What matters is not on which side of the pitch the ball is, what matters is the ball's direction,” Davutoğlu added.

This is Ankara's will, Davutoğlu firmly stated, when reminded of comments suggesting that Armenia and Turkey moved further in normalization efforts due to pressure from their common ally the US.

“Please remember how we improved our relations with neighboring Syria. At the time we didn't bow to any kind of international pressure which tried to prevent us from holding talks with Syria. This is Ankara's will. Either today or tomorrow, the normalization of ties with Armenia will happen.”  In the autumn of 1998, Syria and Turkey came to the brink of war over the presence of the now-jailed leader of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), Abdullah Öcalan, in Syria. At the time, Turkish troops were marshaled along the border with Syria, with Ankara demanding that Damascus cease its support for the PKK and hand over Öcalan.

Protocols outline mutual recognition of common border, dialogue on history

Two protocols which Ankara and Yerevan announced they will sign within six weeks under a plan to normalize relations include provisions to help better explain to the public the course of affairs regarding the highly sensitive issue, which may be subject to ultra-nationalist rhetoric. The protocol on the establishment of diplomatic relations between Armenia and Turkey “confirms the mutual recognition of the existing border between the two countries as defined by the relevant treaties of international law.”

Over years of non-dialogue, it has been assumed that the Yerevan administration refused to recognize the Gümrü and Kars Agreements that established the Turkish-Armenian border in 1920 and 1921, respectively.

Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, speaking in an interview with the NTV news channel on Tuesday, underlined that the recognition of the borders was an important element of the recent development.

The second protocol, the protocol on the development of relations between Armenia and Turkey, says that the two countries have agreed to “implement a dialogue on the historical dimension with the aim to restore mutual confidence between the two nations, including an impartial scientific examination of historical records and archives to define existing problems and formulate recommendations.”

The second protocol says that Armenia and Turkey have agreed on the establishment of an intergovernmental bilateral commission which shall form separate sub-commissions for the prompt implementation of the commitments mentioned in the operational paragraph 2, mentioned above, in the same protocol. The aforementioned paragraph highlights “Considering the perspective of developing their bilateral relations, based on confidence and respect to their mutual interests.”

“To prepare the working modalities of the intergovernmental commission and its sub-commissions, a working group headed by the two ministers of foreign affairs shall be created two months after the day following the entry into force of this protocol. Within three months after the entry into force of this protocol, these modalities shall be approved at the ministerial level. The intergovernmental commission shall meet for the first time immediately after the adoption of the said modalities. The sub-commission shall start their work at the latest one month thereafter and they shall work continuously until the completion of their mandates. Where appropriate, international experts shall take part in the sub-commissions,” the second protocol says.