The situation of Shiites in Iraq after Abdul Aziz al-Hakim’s death and the political equilibriums

He died of lung cancer. The absence of al-Hakim, who played an important role in forming the United Iraqi Alliance composed of all the Shiite parties in Iraq especially before the 2005 election, may produce important developments both inside the party and the policy of the country. The most significant role of Abdul Aziz al-Hakim was to keep the different groups together inside the party and to maintain the relations with the USA as good as possible while having intimate relations with Iran. The most important issue appearing after al-Hakim’s death is whether his place will be able to be replaced or not.

It can be said that there are four important factors to keep in mind for the leadership in the ISCI after al-Hakim’s death:

1. The role of al-Hakim’s family in leadership since the creation of the movement.
2. The multilateral structure of the party and power share struggle between the leading groups.
3. The party’s capability of maintaining the relations both with Iran and the USA successfully.
4. The current political conjecture and new political alliances in Iraq.

When the first factor is examined, it is seen that the ISCI has always been led by a member of al-Hakim’s family since the establishment in 1982. Mohammed Baqir al-Hakim’s brother, Abdul Aziz took the leadership of the movement after Mohammed Baqir was killed in a bombing attack in Iraq in 2003. After it was learned that Abdul Aziz al-Hakim was suffering from lung cancer, Ammar al-Hakim has been groomed as his successor. Although Ammar al-Hakim has taken an important role inside the party in recent years, it’s too early to say that he is the leader. However, when the dominance of the family in the party is taken into account, it can be said that Ammar al-Hakim will be effective in the future of the party.

The followings can be said within the framework of the second factor: The ISCI has been set up as an umbrella organization involving various Shiite parties who escaped from the pressure of Saddam Hussein regime. Although some important parties broke away from this alliance later, it’s known that there are several strong factions inside the party. Today, the most prominent names of the party are the member of the Constitutional Committee Humam Hamoudi, the Vice President Adil Abdul-Mahdi, the head of the Badr Organization Abdul Hadi Al-Amiri, Jalal al-Din Saghir, Salahaddin Qubbanji, the head of the commission of political relations Ridha Jawad Taqi and Mohammed Taqi Mawla. We get the impression that the leader will be chosen in reconciliation with all those important figures rather than giving the control of the party to one person. For that reason, it can be said that even if the leader is chosen from al-Hakim’s family, he won’t be able to act on his own and won’t be as much powerful as the previous leaders.

The third factor is the influence of the USA and Iran. It’s known that Iran has a direct and extremely powerful influence on the organization. When the ISCI policy is examined, it can be seen that the marja taqlid (supreme legal authorities) is very important. Therefore, it isn’t wrong to think that Iran will have a significant role in determining the new leader. It’s almost impossible to become the new leader of the movement without the marja taqlid’s approval. It’s also important to maintain good relations with Iran. However, it’s expected that the new leader will have the diplomatic competence to sustain the relations with the USA successfully by taking into account the realities of Iraq’s politics and the weight of the USA on Iraq.

Finally, new alliances and political atmosphere in Iraq just before the forthcoming elections will affect considerably the ISCI’s future. The Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki’s Dawa Party didn’t join the National Iraqi Alliance which replaced the United Iraqi Alliance formed before the 2005 election and that is an important development concerning the political equilibriums in Iraq. Although the leader of the alliance seems to be the veteran Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jafari, it’s known that actually the ISCI did found this alliance which may splinter the Shiite parties among themselves. That’s why the new leader should be able to maintain the alliance and play the mediator role in the disputes among the Shiite groups.

In conclusion, it can be said that the ISCI and the Iraqi Shiite parties have taken yet another turn and that the elections to be held in January 2010 will play a very important role in determining the future of those parties.

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»» Assist. Prof. Dr. Serhat Erkmen, Ahi Evran University, ORSAM Middle East Advisor