Notes about the elections in Afghanistan: observations from Mezar-i Sharif

Although the threats of the Taliban having a large press coverage in the world and the rising acts of violence in recent years risked the safety of the elections and the electors , that day, the number of the incidents were fewer than expected. The election which has been anticipated impatiently by the whole world took place in such an atmosphere. Taking on several tasks in order to contribute to the stability and democracy in Afghanistan, Turkey was also among the other countries to send international observers. The observers of the election were academicians and specialists from research centers.  ORSAM, observing particularly the elections in the Middle East in recent years, was one of the institutions to send an observer to Afghanistan. Turkey’s election observers were sent to three regions in Afghanistan. These were Mezar-i Sharif, Vardak and Khabil.  Within this framework, ORSAM, will report the observations related to the situation in Mezar-i Sharif and the course of the elections.

The center of Balkh province in the north of Afghanistan, Mezar-i Sharif is named after a historical turbeh (sacred tomb) that is claimed to be the tomb of Hz. Ali (Holy Ali). In the province where Tajiks compose the 40% of the population, Turkmens and Uzbeks along with some Hazaras and Pashtuns live as well. Ahmad Shah Masoud was assassinated by Al-Qaida in this province shortly before the September 11 attacks, so his pictures can be seen all over the town.  The city is especially important for Turkey as the great philosopher and scientist, Mawlana is thought to be born in Balkh. The school nearest to the Turkish Consulate General in Mezar-i Sharif is named “Mawlana Jalal-ud-Din Balkhi” after him.

Mezar-i Sharif is in the north of Afghanistan and road transport is possible from Uzbekistan. No matter how many acts of violence have happened in Afghanistan, this route seems safe. It can’t be said that this region has been cleared off from the violent acts of Taliban and their collaborators although Taliban couldn’t put down its roots there. However, their power is relatively low there. But, there exists a powerful Taliban presence in Kunduz and Baglan; the east of Balkh. The Taliban militants attack civilian people as much as they do to multinational forces. As a matter of fact, it’s been reported that 13 civilians were killed in an attack just before the elections in this region.

Maybe, Afghanistan is one of the most difficult places to live on Earth. Nonetheless, it’s hard to say that it has become like that after the invasion in 2001. A big change catches the eye when one passes the Uzbekistan- Afghanistan border. While passing the bridge over the Amu Derya, one doesn’t feel like passing from one country to another, but from one century to another. In Afghanistan, the roads are extremely rough except for the main ones; there is no irrigation; the whole place is covered with hays and there are no trees visible in the range of some hundreds of kilometers. The range of bare mountains -extending parallel to the Hindu Kush Mountain and catching the eye immediately when passing the Uzbek-Afghan border -is the indication of how challenging the geography in this country is. After a 1- hour trip from the border, one arrives in Mezar-i Sharif and the scene starts to change. The city faces infrastructure problems like many other countries in the Middle East. However, certain regions have developed and the main roads are in a good state. Some people get relatively luxury houses constructed. Local people say that developments have been made since the security was maintained. Nevertheless, it can’t be forgotten that the Taliban isn’t very far away from this region and that it may return one day.

The election in Mezar-i Sharif was held in such an atmosphere. On the day of the election, there weren’t any extra security precautions. In fact, security was provided by one or two policemen in certain schools. Although it was said that special precautions were taken at the entrance of the city, there wasn’t any sign of it. Probably, the reason is that Mezar-i Sharif is considered to be a safe region and security forces have been transferred to other regions. On the day of the election, we visited almost 50 election stations in more than 12 election centers and the picture we got wasn’t very surprising. It was predicted that the possibility of vote-rigging and irregularity in the cities where security situation is good would be lower than in the other regions. As a matter of fact, except for a few minor mistakes, there wasn’t any serious problem in the election centers which had been chosen by us and determined independently. It was also impossible to prepare the centers for observation beforehand. It’s hard to predict the number of electors since there wasn’t any list of electors prepared and distributed beforehand to the election centers. However, there were generally 250-350 votes in the ballot boxes for which 600 voting papers were prepared. The queues in the early morning were replaced by silence in the afternoon. The observers of the candidates and local non-governmental organizations also worked in the election centers. 65 international election observers from the IRI and NDI in the USA and a non-governmental organization in Asia ANFREL have observed the elections in this region. We weren’t confronted with any incidents or complaints like erased election inks or rejected, threatened and oppressed electors. Nonetheless, such kinds of incidents have been reported in other regions. People tend to think that Abdullah Abdullah, the candidate for presidency, will succeed in the elections since the province is administrated by the charismatic and powerful Governor Ata Mohammed Nur who is known to be close to Abdullah Abdullah. However, this situation isn’t true for all other northern provinces. In the places like Kunduz and Baglan, the election process itself and results constitute a problem. It seems that the return of the General Rashid Dostum is helpful for Hamid Karzai concerning the election for presidency in the province of Cevizcan, on the west of Balkh. With the return of Dostum, a certain number of Uzbeks support Karzai. In fact, the return of Dostum has given hope not only for Uzbeks but also for Turkmens. It’s hard to say in advance what alliances Karzai will establish in Afghanistan in the long term. However, it seems that the USA and Karzai will have to cooperate with the conventional power groups since they don’t have the power to control the system and groups and the competence to carry on the fight against the Taliban all alone. When we look from this point of view, the return of the General Rashid Dostum may mean a new dynamism in north.

According to some resources, if Karzai wins the election in the first tour, this case will definitely mean that there has been a vote-rigging and so, the opposing groups will reject the results; if necessary, they will spill out into the streets. In the event of that situation, new emerging political dynamics will drag the country into a new political crisis besides the Taliban problem.

It’s a reality that the election process wasn’t calm in the whole country unlike Mezar-i Sharif. Corruption and irregularity claims still fly about all over the country after the elections. It won’t be wrong to say that more difficult days will be waiting for Afghanistan if ever the second ballot takes place.

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»» Assist. Prof. Dr. Serhat Erkmen, Ahi Evran University, ORSAM Middle East Advisor