[NEWS ANALYSIS] Nabucco boost to EU ties, but no substitute for reforms

Turkey, a key partner in the project, expects Nabucco to be beneficial for its economy. According to estimates, approximately 15,000 people will be employed at the initial phase of the construction of the pipeline, estimated to be completed in 2014, which will bring natural gas from Caspian, Central Asian and Middle Eastern suppliers to Europe. No country will receive transit fees from the planned pipeline. However, based on the length of the pipeline within their territory, countries will receive tax revenues. Turkey, hosting 2,000 kilometers of the 3,300 kilometer-long pipeline, will annually receive $450 million.

Nabucco's greater benefits lie in the political-strategic field. Experts say the $10.6 billion Nabucco gas pipeline project will be a significant boost to Turkey's stalled EU membership bid. Speaking at a ceremony for the signing of an intergovernmental agreement on Nabucco in Ankara on July 13, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said: "With the project, our country's natural gas infrastructure will unite with Europe's, and mutual solidarity during possible crises will be possible. The project will additionally lay the groundwork for improving and deepening our relations with the EU in the energy field."

Speaking at the same ceremony, Jose Manuel Barroso, the president of the EU Commission, was also optimistic on the impact of Nabucco on Turkey's EU bid. “I believe that with the arrival of the first gas -- and some experts have said this will be as early as 2014 -- this agreement will open the door to a new era between the EU and Turkey,” Barroso said. “Gas pipes may be made of steel, but Nabucco can cement the links between our people.”

Turkey began accession talks with the EU in 2005, but progress has been slow amid reluctance from some European countries to accept the predominantly Muslim country into the EU. The continued division of Cyprus also complicates Ankara's bid to join the 27-nation bloc.

But Europe's need for energy security is real, and the continent's main energy supplier, Russia, is increasingly viewed by Europeans as "unpredictable." In January 2009, a dispute between Ukraine and Russia left 18 European countries facing major shortages or cutoffs of their gas supplies from Russia transported through Ukraine. Nabucco will now make Turkey a vital partner with Europe in its attempts to diversify its gas resources, offering Europe an alternative, non-Russian energy corridor.

"People say Turkey will not have any gas problem, that this project will initially bring billions of dollars in revenue to Turkey, that 15,000 people will be employed. But these are not vital topics. The most important benefit Nabucco will bring is its assistance to ease Turkey's process of joining the EU," said Eser Karakaş, an economics professor at İstanbul's Bahçeşehir University.

Europe's only non-Russian energy supply passes through Turkey, and Turkey has already proven itself as a trusted partner for Europe in this respect. Europe also receives crude oil from Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz gas fields via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, which passes through Georgia and Turkey.

No substitute for reforms

But Nabucco, even after the grand ceremony on July 13, is still a project with many problems that have the potential to hamper its success, experts say.

Ziya Öniş, professor of international relations at Koç University, told Today's Zaman that the project is very important but underlined that the signing of the agreement does not mean it will be successfully finalized, citing problems in regard to potential suppliers of the project.

"There is a long way to go for the project to be functional. In particular, there are serious problems with the suppliers," said Öniş. He explained that Azerbaijan, which pledged to provide gas for the project, could not supply enough gas to fill the pipeline. Whether Turkmenistan and Iran could eventually join the suppliers remains a question. Although Turkey is supportive of Iranian inclusion, the United States, a main supporter of the project, is opposed to Iran joining as a supplier. Öniş also noted uncertainty as to whether Iraq could overcome its security problems and join the project and also mentioned Russian pressure on potential suppliers to support rival projects a problem that could complicate the plan.

For Öniş, pinning too much hope on the Nabucco pipeline to save Turkey's troubled EU bid is wrong, since the Cyprus issue and domestic legal reforms are of utmost importance to the EU, he said.

Emre İşeri, a professor in the department of international relations at Kadir Has University, said: "There are many countries with whom the EU trades extensively; however, the EU did not give any hope of EU membership to any of them. I think it would be wrong to build a direct link between Nabucco and the EU."