European analyst says suspension of EU negotiations unlikely

William Chislett, a former Financial Times journalist who has written extensively on Spain and Turkey for the Elcano Royal Institute, Spain's leading think tank, stated in his recent report, “Turkey's EU Accession Reaches an Impasse,” that talk of the suspension due to Turkey's failure to open its ports and airports to Greek Cypriot ships and aircraft is “most unlikely” because it would require a unanimous vote by all 27 EU countries.

“Several of the big EU nations, such as the UK and Spain, would not be prepared to go so far,” he wrote.

In the best-case scenario, probably the most likely, he added, Turkey would be warned about the consequences of not meeting its obligations and given more time as both the Turkish Cypriot and Greek Cypriot presidents are negotiating about the reunification of the island.

“A successful conclusion to these negotiations could lead to another referendum in 2010 on the issue, and a ‘yes' vote on both sides would undoubtedly make it much easier for [Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip] Erdoğan to implement the protocol,” he stated.

If this happens, the eight chapters blocked by the European Commission as of December 2006 would be opened, he added.

In 2006, the EU suspended negotiations on eight chapters due to Turkey's refusal to open its ports and airports to traffic from Greek Cyprus. The relations further soured in the run-up to the European Parliament elections in June when conservative and far-right politicians gained strength in their opposition to Turkey's membership.

Chislett noted that French President Nicolas Sarkozy, backed by the German Chancellor Angela Merkel wants Turkey to have a privileged partnership with the EU.

“The partnership idea, which has never been fully spelled out and is rejected by Turkey, may gain momentum as a result of the greater share of seats in the European Parliament won by extreme right-wing parties in June's European elections,” he pointed out. “It is assumed that under a partnership deal Turkey would be integrated in European defense, security and foreign policy mechanisms, with eventual full membership in the relevant decision-making bodies.”

However, Chislett stated as a member of NATO Turkey has already spent 57 years defending Europe and stated that it doesn't offer Turkey any privileges.

“A privileged partnership offers no new privileges to Turkey and by excluding it from decision-making enforces the growing feeling in Turkey that the most the country can expect is to be treated as a second-class European citizen because it is poor, large and Muslim.”

He also noted that Turkey has already spent 46 years in the “EU's anteroom,” since becoming an associate member of the then European Economic Community in 1963.

“Failure to make Turkey a full member, assuming it meets all the criteria one day, like all other countries that have negotiated their membership, would also erode the EU's credibility by showing to the world that it does not keep its word. The basic principle of Roman law –pacta sunt servanda (agreements must be kept)– is part of the European cultural heritage.”

‘Ergenekon case: historic opportunity’

In his 32-page report Chislett explores such issues as politics, the reform process, the results of March's local elections, relations with Armenia, the Kurdish issue, Turkey's foreign policy, economy, and the trial of Ergenekon, which is accused of fomenting chaos to trigger a coup to overthrow the government.

“This case represents an historic opportunity to confront what is known in Turkey as the ‘deep state,' a state within a state, and assert civilian control over the army,” he stated.

He also evaluated Erdoğan's ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party), which has adopted a much slower pace of reform compared to its reformist first three years after it won the 2002 general election.

“Once accession negotiations began in earnest, after October 2005, and the economic and political cost of EU reforms began to be felt, the AK Party's initial enthusiasm waned, sapped, to some extent, by the anti-membership statements coming out of Paris and Berlin and a feeling that however hard it might try, the door would never be opened.”

As another reason that may have influenced the AK Party's stagnancy in adopting reforms, he brought up the European Court of Human Rights' decision in 2005 to uphold Turkey's ban on headscarves on university campuses.

“It is said to have marked a turning point for Erdoğan [whose wife wears the headscarf] as he had hoped a favorable ruling would have enabled him to relax the rigidly secular norms and usher in more personal religious freedom in the public space.”

He also noted that support for the EU in Turkey is declining, from as much as 71 percent in 2004 down to 42 percent in 2008 according to Eurobarometer surveys. The full report is available at the Web site of the Elcano Royal Institute.