The party has grouped its mistakes under three headings: errors in candidate selection, ambiguity in AK Party policies and a marked slowdown in the party’s drive for reform. The AK Party garnered 39 percent of the total vote in this year’s municipal elections, compared to 47 percent in the 2007 general elections and 41 percent in the 2004 municipal elections.
Three commissions of 10 members each were set up to pinpoint the reasons behind the failure. The first commission, headed by AK Party Deputy Chairwoman Edibe Sözen, studied newspaper articles and television shows commenting on the election results. This commission found that the media mostly offered good analyses of the party’s election failure. One point common to all the views expressed by analysts in the media was that there has been increasing ambiguity in the AK Party’s general policies. This commission also found that major mistakes in candidate nominations contributed to the decrease in public support. The commission argued that looking from an economic perspective alone is not enough and that the decline in support in the Southeast and a lack of clear messages regarding fundamental rights and freedoms should also be taken into consideration.
This commission found that the government’s failure to keep its promises regarding the drafting of a new and more democratic Constitution, changes to Turkey’s Political Parties Law and a slowdown in EU reforms had led to a significant decrease in the party’s support. It also confirmed that the global economic crisis played a role in the election outcome, as the party did much better in provinces where the government’s measures against the crisis were more palpable.
The second commission concentrated its work on mayoral candidates in areas where the party saw great success. This commission found that the nomination of candidates not supported by the party’s local branches was a major factor in the election disappointment. It also found that AK Party candidates who did not get re-elected, particularly those in Antalya, Manisa and Balıkesir, had failed to explain to the general public the work they had done during the time they were in office.
In addition to the work of the first two commissions, a third investigative commission evaluated public opinion polls conducted in advance of the elections. The commission confirmed that many of these polls were misleading and noted that local media and broadcasting groups had made more accurate predictions of the results. However, the commission recommended that a professional firm be hired to do research in areas where the AK Party’s losses were heavy.
For this reason, the third commission, with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan at its helm, left its work unfinished. The commission instead decided to have public opinion surveys conducted over the next month or so to determine the accuracy of the findings of the first two committees. Three companies that conducted public opinion polls for the AK Party during the election campaigning will attempt to determine the reasons for their losses in certain regions.
