EU process and Turkey’s role in the Middle East
by
EMRE USLU & ÖNDER AYTAÇ

It is also much clearer that while Turkey can have a role in the Middle East without the EU, the same cannot be said for the EU.

Turkey's bid for EU membership will make Turkey an influential actor in the region for the following reasons:

1) Although secular elitists in Turkey deny this, Turkey and its ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) are seen as examples for the new bourgeoisie and Islamic networks in the Middle East. The AK Party's experience and Turkey's EU process are a model for moderate Muslim organizations to construct dynamic Middle East policies for a vast geography from Iran to Tunisia. There is widespread pessimism among Islamic networks that the EU will not accept Turkey. But every step Turkey takes toward the EU softens the views and tough stance of Islamic networks.

2) Turkey's progress in her EU bid strengthens the voice of moderate Islam against radical Islam in the Middle East. It creates more effective returns than the millions of US dollars spent to eliminate terrorist ideologies and shifts sociological support from radical Muslim networks to moderate Muslim networks. Certainly, dictator regimes in the Middle East will also influence sociological shifts.

3) Debates on how Turkey's EU progress will affect the role of the powerful Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) are also indicative of Turkey's role in the Middle East. The transition to the EU requires Turkey to minimize the influence of the armed forces in politics. But the TSK will assume new roles given the likelihood of clashes between dictators and the public in regions prone to conflict such as Lebanon, Palestine, Iraq, Afghanistan and Gulf countries. The TSK will be more welcomed in the region than EU and US military forces if the TSK, which has become very politicized because of its strong defense of extreme laic and Kemalist ideology, is neutralized by the EU process. Any mission assigned to the TSK in the region will most certainly be satisfying given the strong stance of the armed forces.

4) The Turkish economy plays an increasingly exemplary role in the Middle East, shifting the current annuity-based model toward an effective tax-based economic model. The developing economy of the East and Southeast could create economic opportunities and function as the powerhouse of the region. Increasing economic activities in the East and Southeast to a level parallel to the EU will transform the region into a new economic zone. Nonetheless, the rise of economic opportunities in the region is incredibly important in terms of achieving world peace.

5) While it is unclear whether renewable energy work will play a role in the economy, there is no doubt that any energy transported to the EU from the Middle East will have to pass through Turkey, making her an influential EU actor in the Middle East energy market. This will balance Russia's power in the energy market, support the Middle East economic zone and foster the sociological changes needed in the region.

6) The good nature of relationships between the EU and countries such as Syria, Iran and particularly Lebanon are closely tied to Turkey's perspective on the EU. It's important to remember that Arab nationalism was born along the Syria-Lebanon axis and much of the intellectual world has roots along an Aegean line going from Syria to Alexandria. This Aegean line is also where nationalism, Europe's mainstream ideology of the 19th and 20th centuries, was born. Turkey's EU process is being closely followed in countries on the Aegean line, and Turkey's economic and political understanding will have a strong influence on the cultural aspect of ideological changes. In other words, a new Turkey-EU influenced model will replace the 20th century European ideology of nationalism in the region.

[*] Dr. Emre Uslu is an analyst working with the Jamestown Foundation, a Washington-based think tank. Önder Aytaç is an associate professor at Gazi University's department of communications and works with the Security Studies Institute in Ankara.