[Gül’s visit to Armenia]
Talking with elected politicians instead of Diaspora by Kenan DAĞCI*

Status quo disruptive to interests of both countries

Armenia’s uncompromising stance alienates Armenian people with international community; for this reason, Armenia fails to integrate with the civilized world. The people are suffering from extreme poverty because of this policy. Armenia’s integration with the West and the international community through Turkey which shares sea and land borders with the Western world. An Armenian with good ties with Turkey may become a country which enjoys economic prosperity and greater political independence. 

Likewise, Turkey expects any probable change in Armenian attitude without compromising from its official policies. However, preservation of the current status quo is harmful to both Turkish and Armenian interests. Armenia is an important country –at least as important as Georgia is—in terms of geopolitical location. It serves as a vital bridge for Turkey’s reach to the eastern markets and its energy policies. It also has a crucial place for Turkey in terms of its connection with the Turkic republics in Central Asia. As observed in the recent war between Georgia and Russia, Turkey’s reliance on policies that only consider Georgia in the region may bear great risks for the present and for the future.

Instead of remaining inactive, Turkey can create an island of peace and stability in its east by developing new instruments. Why is Turkey anticipating the first step that will be useful for its interests from Armenia?

Whether or not President Abdullah Gül should watch a soccer game between Turkish and Armenian national squads on September 6 has been extensively discussed. Armenian President Serj Sarkisyan’s invitation can actually be interpreted as their eagerness to take some action and to voice the will of Armenian people. President Gül positively responded to the olive branch extended by Sarkisyan by accepting the invitation. Turkey should be able to use this invitation as a new instrument.

Should Turkey hold talks with the elected Armenian President or the Armenian Diaspora? 

Serj Sarkisyan is the President of Armenia who was elected to this post after receiving support of 57 percent of Armenian people. For the first time, Sarkisyan took such a great risk after his election as president. He ignored harsh criticisms by the diaspora and extremely nationalist Dashnak Party and invited Gül.

In Turkey, National Movement Party (MHP) and People’s Republican Party (CHP) carried out a campaign to prevent Gül’s visit to Yerevan. MHP described Gül’s visit as a historically grave mistake, adding that this would injure our national honor and pride. CHP leader Baykal who said, “I rather go to Baku instead of Armenia,” tried to put pressure over the president. However, the discourse of both parties does not involve a vision that will contribute to the resolution of the existing problems. What could this approach do other than sustaining the current status quo? However, Gül’s visit to Yerevan could serve as a great opportunity that will initiate a peace process between the peoples of Armenia and Turkey. If such opportunities are properly used, the current situation cannot be changed. A dialogue process that could possibly include Armenia Azerbaijan, Turkey and Georgia could open new communication channels and ultimately contribute to the improvement of stability and peace in the region.

Improved relations between Turkey and Armenia could contribute to resolution of Karabagh Question

Improved relations between Armenia and Turkey and opening of new communication channels in these relations are also helpful for Azerbaijan to attain its goals. Policies pursued in regards to the Karabagh Question under the auspices of countries and international organizations including the US, Russia and Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) have not produced any fruitful results for many years. It is evident that these policies will not be useful at the present time as well because big powers which have interests in the region do not want to see this issue resolved. As long as the Karabagh issue remains, Azerbaijan and Armenia stay dependent on big powers including Russia and the US. Sustenance of this state of dependence is consistent with the interests of big powers because they are able to keep their control and influence over Azerbaijan and Armenia. For instance, Russia has installed bases in Armenian territories by exploiting the tension between Azerbaijan and Armenia in connection with this issue whereas the US seeks to maintain political and economic influence in relation to the energy issues relying on this problem.

Normalization in the bilateral relations between Turkey and Armenia in a geography where big powers have such certain and important interests may also serve to the interests of Azerbaijan. Turkey can play an active role in the resolution of KArabagh Question after making sure that the projected policy is well explained to Azerbaijan. Last but not least, Gül’s visit to Yerevan will create a positive image of Turkey in international arena, further showing that it is pursuing a constructive policy vis-à-vis the Armenian issues. And of course, such moves will take Turkey to a stronger position in international relations. It is time for Turkey to reconsider its policy towards Armenia.

* Associate professor Kenan DAĞCI.