US State Department spokesman Philip Crowley said last Friday that defending against Iran’s long-range missiles lies behind the Gradual Warning System Model (missile shield). This statement runs contrary to the Turkish government’s bargaining position with NATO, and in particular with its close ally, the US.The US has been seeking to most possibly deploy X-band radars in about 10 to 15 spots on Turkish territory as part of the missile shield plan to intercept possible Iranian missiles and deter them from hitting some NATO countries.
Turkey in principle rejects NATO naming any country as a threat and suggests that the security concerns of all NATO members should be addressed rather than pursuing a selective policy of naming certain nations to host the parts of the missile shield under the anti-missile plan.
Since the US has named Turkey’s neighbor Iran in the region as a potential threat to justify the plan to be put into force, this has created a headache for Turkey, which has advanced its ties with Iran together with other once problematic neighbors. Turkish-US ties had already soured when Ankara vetoed US-sponsored United Nations sanctions against Iran in July due to its alleged nuclear arms development program.
Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) was intensely engaged in the Iranian nuclear stalemate when it struck a deal with Iran along with Brazil last May to ship Tehran’s low enriched uranium to Turkey in exchange for nuclear fuel for a Tehran reactor. The US rejected the plan, disappointing Turkey.
With Turkey having entered into an atmosphere of national elections, due to be held in June of next year, the AK Party will find it more difficult to sell to the public the idea of being part of the missile shield. Furthermore, this will be used by opposition parties to embarrass the ruling party among conservative potential voters.
Also, if Russia continues its policy of not joining the missile shield program, Turkey will take the risk of damaging its growing ties with Moscow.
Though the current government is more sensitive about any action targeting Iran, the Turkish state, including its still politically powerful armed forces, will also not like the idea of NATO, with the US as the main sponsor, building a missile shield that will openly target Iran.
Back in the late 1990s and in the early 2000s, when the AK Party was not in power, Turkey opted to take part in a NATO anti-ballistic missile project instead of joining a US-Israeli project to build a regional missile defense.
This is to say that Turkey has always been sensitive to any plans that would portray its neighbors as hostile, mainly because it does not want to be a direct target of any of its neighbors.
Though the current plan is included in a NATO plan, with the US bearing the main portion of the cost, taking into consideration the anti-Americanism in Turkey and the increased sensitivity of Turks over hosting a part of the missile shield they perceive to be hostile to their neighbors, the political authority has to find a face-saving formula to accept the deployment of what will most likely be radar on its soil or take a risk of further agitating its close ally, the US.
A NATO summit due to be held on Nov. 19 is expected to adopt a new NATO strategic concept that includes the missile shield. With time running out, Turkey and mainly the US have entered into another set of sensitive negotiations on the missile plan.
Despite Turkey’s demand, among other things, for no country to be named as a threat in the project, US spokesperson Crowley’s remarks that defense against Iranian long-range missiles lies behind the Gradual Warning System Model appear to have made it harder for Ankara to accept the project.
In the meantime, Turkey is understood to have set up a link between its national missile program and the missile shield. Defense Minister Vecdi Gönül signaled this in a remark he made to the media last Friday.
“This [national anti-missile plan] is an expensive project, and we can significantly reduce costs if the NATO missile defense system covers the entire territory of Turkey,” he said.
Turkey had previously declined to link the national missile program with NATO’s missile shield project.
The US Lockheed Martin/Raytheon team as well as the Russians, Chinese and a French-Italian partnership are competing in Turkey’s long-range air and missile defense systems (T-LORAMIDS) acquisition project. The Turkish military has put the price of its tender relating to the acquisition of T-LORAMIDS at $1 billion, covering the purchase of four batteries. However, Raytheon and Lockheed Martin have put the cost of providing 12 fire units at $4.5 billion.
Gönül’s remarks suggest Turkey has been seeking to reduce the number, and thus the cost, of missile units to be acquired under the national missile program as part of negotiations over the missile shield.
At the end of the day Turkey should find a formula that will not prompt Iranians to raise their eyebrows and not further alienate its close ally, the US.
