The South Caucasus is now almost certainly the most heavily armed region in Europe, with Armenia and Azerbaijan alone collectively increasing their defense spending fivefold over the past decade. Moscow continues to beef up its military at home while at the same time enhancing its military presence in the region. The Georgians are also quietly rearming following the bloody war against Russia in August of 2008, which destroyed much of their military.
Unfortunately, this trend seems set to continue, and in recent weeks there has been a surge in activity with military reform and modernization being offered as justifications for increased military spending on arms procurement in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Russia. In a region entrenched with security threats including unresolved border disputes, territorial claims and separatism, the current status quo is extremely vulnerable and perilous.
In Georgia, the Kremlin accuses the Obama administration of rearming Georgia -- although the US is certainly not alone is selling weapons to Georgia, with purchases also being made from Ukraine, Israel and Turkey -- which it sees as unacceptable, saying unpredictable President Mikheil Saakashvili should not be allowed anywhere near dangerous weapons. At the same time the Russians continue to build up their military presence in the breakaway territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia which now includes a significant amount of military hardware and troops as well as a strong naval presence at the Black Sea port of Sukhumi. Although it seems unlikely that Russia would start a new war with Georgia, most Georgians seem to live in fear of precisely that and have very little hope of seeing their lost territories reintegrated any time soon with the ongoing Geneva Process peace talks making very little progress. Since the end of the war, Russia has blocked the extension of monitoring missions from international bodies other than the EU, which has 225 civilian observers patrolling along the borders of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and a mandate to stay until September of 2011.
Across the border Armenia likes to boast about its military alliance with the Kremlin, while Azerbaijan brags over how much money it has spent on arms and military reform. Moscow recently upgraded its military relations with Armenia including extending its military base lease at Gyumri until 2044. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev also stated that if the need arose Russia (which maintains that it plays a neutral role as one of the mediators involved in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace talks) would be ready to help Armenia if Azerbaijan turned their war talk into action and decided to take Nagorno-Karabakh and the seven other Azerbaijani provinces (which have been occupied by Armenia for the past 16 years) back by force. A few days later Medvedev headed off to Baku, where he held talks with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, apparently aimed at reassuring Azerbaijan over Moscow’s renewed commitment to Armenia while also offering the Azerbaijan the opportunity to buy some arms from Moscow, too. Russia almost certainly does not want to see renewed war; rather Moscow is more interested in maintaining the status quo and extracting the maximum from both parties, thereby further consolidating its own interests and influence. There are also ongoing rumors that Turkey is planning to open a military base in the Azerbaijani province of Nakhchivan. Given that Turkey is a NATO member, any such base could be equated to having a NATO presence in the country. Therefore, what the US would have to say in this would be crucial.
All this military activity does not help the peace process -- it simply adds to the distrust and tension. Nagorno-Karabakh is the most serious threat to the region. On Aug. 31 there was another serious violation of the Line of Contact, with a number of soldiers losing their lives. Each side continues to blame the other, the international community issues statements condemning the incidents and life goes on, until the next time.
The West seems to have become very complacent that this “no war, no peace” situation is sustainable and gives the impression of being unconcerned by the sky rocketing defense spending and amassing of arms. This is a risky policy as it is only a matter of time before one of these violations spirals out of control and full-scale war breaks out. And it won’t be like the last time, because with the Azerbaijani-Armenian arms race, both sides have acquired weapons capable of delivering devastating results spilling far beyond their borders.
The US gives the impression that the situation in the South Caucasus is not presently a threat to its national security and, therefore, prefers to keep its focus elsewhere. The EU also seems to have little regard to this ticking time bomb maintaining an equally shortsighted approach. While the international community continues (and quite rightly so) to be consumed with the security threat of Iran, they should not be blind to what is going on just over the Iranian border and stop underestimating the security threat there. Far more checks, controls and balances need to be carried out while at the same time pushing for greater progress in the various peace talks. Otherwise, as with the Georgian-Russia war, they will find themselves roused from their slumber by mortars hitting the ground, and by then it will be too late.
