In the EU there is little appetite for taking on board a big chunk of “Turkish delight” with some member states (led by the French) opposing it outright. In Turkey the EU is increasingly viewed as a “bete-noir.” Turks resent that their country is treated differently from other candidates; that the EU is insensitive to issues that are of great importance to Turkey (the continued harboring of PKK terrorists in some member states); and that the EU projects double standards -- preaching to Turkey that is should improve minority rights while at the same time French President Nicholas Sarkozy expels Roma in a manner that has been compared by some French MP’s to round-ups during World War II. Coming at a time when Ankara is becoming increasingly assertive and confident on the world stage, many Turk’s now believe they are well placed to ditch the EU goal, something I totally disagree with. The EU acts as an anchor, one could say, keeping Turkey on the straight and narrow. However, with some in the EU seemingly intent on rejecting Ankara, the anchor is losing its weight and Turkey is beginning to drift.
So far 12 negotiating chapters have been opened, with 22 remaining. Of these 21, 19 have been blocked or frozen mainly due to Turkey’s failure extend the additional protocol of its customs union with the EU to the Republic of Cyprus. France has blocked a further 5 closely related to membership, such as agricultural and rural development, economic and monetary policy and external relations, foreign, security and defense policy. That leaves only a handful of chapters on politically neutral issues. The current Belgian EU presidency has promised things will “pick up,” but with the EU’s present lackluster foreign policy, this is not very likely. This short-sighted approach comes at a time when the EU’s foreign policy is all over the place, failing to have an outreach anywhere and being increasingly seen as naval gazing.
The European Commission is now preparing the 2010 Progress Report on Turkey, which will be published in November. The report is something of an annual school bulletin highlighting what Turkey has done well and where there is still room for improvement. There are certain areas where Turkey has made progress -- something the EU has been asking for for a long time. However, lurking on the horizon is the issue of Cyprus.
The December 2010 Summit will once again put the island in the spotlight as EU leaders decide how to deal with the fact that Turkey still has not done what it is legally obliged to do.
The on-going struggle for power in Turkey’s domestic politics also plays into this, as Turkey endeavors to come to grips with the transformation process that is currently going on. Turkey has long seen itself as being the leading secular country (after Azerbaijan) among majority Muslim states, with secularism directing the course of the state since its creation in 1923.
However, since the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) came to power fear has skyrocketed that secularism is slipping, to the distinct dislike of certain circles that accuse the AK Party of harboring an Islamic agenda. This transformation is not only polarizing Turkey, but is also impacting Ankara’s foreign policy.
Turkey has long been a reliable ally of the West through its NATO membership, close ties with the US and desire to be part of the EU. The combination of domestic turmoil, the EU cold shoulder and opportunities that have arisen in Turkey’s other neighborhoods have resulted in Turkish foreign policy being restructured. The upshot of this rejigging is Turkey being accused of turning its back on the West, with speculation that if the current trends continue Turkey’s longstanding alliance with the West could be reversed. It seems the US is more concerned than the EU.
The AK Party maintains that EU membership is a priority, but this is simply not reflected in their reform efforts. Their main goal now is winning next year’s parliamentary elections. While the AK Party continues to display outward confidence, its reduced votes in last year’s municipal elections provided evidence that it can be challenged. Therefore, the outcome of the upcoming Sept. 12 referendum will be a good sign of the popularity of the party. A clear-cut win and the AK Party could well be on the road for another victory next year.
There is no doubt that Turkey’s longstanding alliance with the West has shifted. But, clearly, it is not over. Ankara is never going to totally turn its back on the West, but it will be more and more inclined to do things “its own way.” The only way to change this is for the West to rejuvenate the relationship, to demonstrate to Ankara that Turkey is a crucial partner with whom they want a shared future. If they do not, it is likely that in a short time Ankara’s EU flame will burn out, leaving behind a very unpredictable and anchorless Turkey .
