It all depends, certainly, on whether one sees the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) with sympathy or antipathy, whether one’s verdict is already written or whether it gives the benefit of a doubt.There seems to be agreement, however, on the “captain”: In a metaphor about soccer, as Taraf editor Ahmet Altan wrote, we have a forward who occasionally fills the audience with joy and hope and at other times leads people to tear their hair and bite their fingers in despair and anger. Or, as I see it, an unpredictable driver of an old, fully loaded bus on rugged terrain, on whom hopes and fears are strictly tied.
And the ship sails on, the match is full of excitement or the bus passes through a swamp.
The agenda is fixed: reforms. The destination, displayed on the horizon in a rather timid and blurred manner, is democracy.
As inevitable as it has been, the plans for a partial constitutional change have been polished to soon be presented as a draft. We can now talk about a radical reshaping of the Supreme Board of Judges and Prosecutors (HSYK), increasing the number of its members from eight to 21, and other amendments on establishing an ombudsman (a long overdue reform), the rights of children, the rights of civil servants, the enhancement of the civilian judiciary’s jurisdiction over the military on certain crimes, allowing a system of appeals with regard to the decisions of the Supreme Military Board (YAŞ) and the protection of the private data of individuals.
And, arguably the most important chapter of all: The one on the regime of party closures, on the basis established by Venice Commission.
The preparation and presentation of the partial draft, aimed for a referendum, is a critical threshold that will signify where Turkish politics is heading. With this, the AKP is steering toward a tremendous challenge. There are several obstacles, and one horror scenario, which is still persistent due to strong rumors.
First, the other political actors. Despite the fact that most of these amendments have appeared in the EU’s progress reports as main challenges for this country, the opposition seems fully determined not to play along. Should one expect a change of heart from the Republican People’s Party (CHP)? Not a bit. Deniz Baykal not only refuses to discuss the partial draft at a leadership level with the AKP, but also categorically refuses the offer by the AKP that “it is ready to discuss a CHP-authored draft.” The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) is decided on the notion that constitutional amendments should be the business of the next parliament. The pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) is a loose cannon: It raises the condition that the 10 percent threshold in the national elections must be lowered before it makes any decision on the amendments.
In light of that, the picture is clear: The actors in the opposition are openly gambling, with a paralyzed long-term view, on the cost of democracy. By refusing to participate in a joint reshaping of a “new Turkey,” they jeopardize the positive aspects of the future, leaving the ship of Turkey sailing for stormier waters.
However, one might say, politics is politics, and it changes shape like water in a jug. Even if we agree with that, something else must be put into the current context. Just as the ruling party hurries to present its package to Parliament, Ankara is again full of rumors of another closure case. It has escalated in the past week and no journalist has been able to confirm it, but this has been whispered to each and every one of us by well-informed sources: A new closure case against the AKP is under way, even imminent. Sources say that the chief prosecutor has been at work and an announcement could be expected by the end of this month. The case’s aim, it is said, is primarily to ban the top leadership of the AKP from politics, rather than closing the party altogether.
Too hard to believe? Irrational? Inevitable? In Turkey, one should remain open to all sorts of surprises. But, none of them should change what lies in the heart of the matter: whether this country will be doomed to stay in its old-fashioned, dysfunctional system ruled by nomenclature or be able to reach a destination where we shall see a new Turkey with freedom, tolerance and stability. This is what makes all the other attempts to label the present with polarization, etc., altogether redundant -- or false.
