How today’s Turkey deals with a dark episode of its predecessor, the Ottoman Empire, and how the countries with important ties to Turkey act in response, has established a pattern in the global arena, which creates a destructive, vicious circle. Something new has to be done.“Now, this is the time for silent diplomacy,” said President Abdullah Gül, on his way to Africa, commenting on the latest escalation between Turkey and its ally, the US, and its staunchest supporter in the EU, Sweden. One can take it for granted that he is frustrated. The process of normalization that was initiated came to reality mainly thanks to Gül himself, and he is unwilling to see it evaporate.
Gül said something else that was noteworthy. Displaying cautious optimism, he hoped that the issue would be resolved by 2015.
This is more than a wish. 2015 is a crucial date in this context; it is the hundredth anniversary of the tragic events centering on the Ottoman Armenians, marking their massive slaughter and forced deportation from their ancient homeland. One may choose to call it genocide, massacre, ethnic cleansing or whatever else; what is much more important is the magnitude of the human tragedy and its profound mark in the collective memory, linked with a justified fight for justice. It is up to each and every human being to listen to his or her conscience and label it. Nobody has the right to enforce labeling on the other. (And, needless to say, one should ignore entirely those who are denial oriented, no matter who they may be.)
Neither is it up to the politicians oor historians to decide whether the events in 1915-16 amount to genocide or not. Politicians are entitled to have their opinion, certainly, and historians can only contribute to the legal experts with objective research and evidence. It should be, as it always is, an international court which, when there is the conviction that there is enough conclusive proof, must decide whether it is, or not. I am not certain whether we are there yet, not only because a few renowned scholars still object on the “intent to annihilate” of the former Ottoman leadership, but also because some big military archives in Germany, Russia and in Turkey are not accessible to academics.
Nevertheless, it is an absolute moral duty that Turkey face its past. Truth is such that it will continue to exert a haunting effect, as opposed to just dissipating.
I have come back to the theme in my articles many times, that global dynamics on 1915 will escalate to reach a “peak” in 2015. The dynamics, as displayed currently in parliaments here and there, may only be reversed by a change of parameters in Turkey’s worn-out official policy, based on the denial of the tragedy (not on “genocide”). Otherwise, the risk of turning into a “moral pariah” is very high.
By that year, therefore, a new roadmap has to be designed by Ankara, focusing the efforts not on useless “money spending” on “fighting the entire world,” but on a serious cooperation with the powers who were involved in World War I, such as Russia and Germany, without whose roles it would be impossible to explain the events and reach, particularly for the Armenians affected, a reasonable, satisfying, convincing (joint?) statement of apology, of clearly worded regret. But Ankara cannot do it all alone; it needs the benevolent assistance of all its friends and allies, the US and those in the EU, too. Sheer confrontation by “wicked finger pointing” has so far been counterproductive. There must be a way out of this farce.
If President Obama or Secretary Clinton also feels frustrated; if Gordon Brown or Carl Bildt or Mona Sahlin or José Zapatero or others feel equally disturbed about the state of things around the issue, a brand new approach, parallel with intensified and coordinated silent diplomacy, is necessary. On the positive side, Turks are becoming busier discussing their past with much less fear; books and research continue to flourish. This creates a solid ground for deeper ties on the NGO level between Turkey and Armenia.
What should also be set up is, perhaps, a regular international conference of historians that will encompass the differences of opinion in the “mainstream” (excluding deniers and hostile fanatics) as a means of informing international opinion in a more nuanced way and to prepare Turkey’s rather unknowing masses for the fact that resorting to moral ground will be good for the civilized world, not only for Turkey and Armenia.
