During the last few months, we had the opportunity to observe the positions of three major foreign players on this issue. The United States insists that an independent Palestinian state should be created through negotiations in which Mahmoud Abbas will represent Palestinians. The US is asking Israel to make some sacrifices in order to make sure that Mr. Abbas remains a credible leader in the eyes of the Palestinians. Thus, according to the US, the first step must come from Israel.The European Union, or at least some of its members, also believes that Israel must accept sacrifices, and there is a belief in Europe that a solution to the Palestine issue remains the only possible way for the EU to get through to the Middle East. The EU is aware that the union’s influence is limited in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and in the Gulf states because of US policies but also because of their refusal so far to allow Turkey into the union. Iran is no longer a possible gateway because of the nuclear crisis, and the chaos in Afghanistan and Pakistan is another obstruction. That is why Palestine is the only probable gate to the region, and the EU wants Israel to unlock this gate.
The third major player, namely Russia, had once established strong economic ties with Israel, but when it became clear that Israel wished to use these ties for political leverage, the Kremlin cut ties with businessmen who were on the Russian end of these bilateral relations. Even though Russia is not a solid supporter of Israel, Russian leaders are still pleased that the US faces difficulties on this issue. Anyway, Russia is aware that no matter how important Moscow’s support toward Israel may be, the latter will never become a totally pro-Russian country. That is why Russia is determined to keep the Palestinian option open.
As one may understand from the Israeli coalition government’s attitude, Israel is quite angry with all these calculations. It believes Israel’s interests must be protected by the US and that the latter’s soft stance towards the Palestinians serves only the interests of third parties. That is why Israel tries to sabotage every peace initiative, especially those proposed by Washington. One day it bombs the Gaza Strip, the next it decides to expand Israeli settlements in the West Bank. Israel is trying to warn the US by putting pressure on the Palestinians, but by doing so it hurts itself more.
As of today, Israel is being criticized not only by its neighbors but also by both the EU and the US. Furthermore, the present situation makes the establishment of a sub-regional cooperation initiative between Syria, Iraq, Jordan, Egypt and Lebanon impossible. However, such an initiative is necessary to stand against Iran, against radical Shiite and Sunni groups and those who support them inside and outside the region. Nevertheless, by its policies, Israel appears to be the one causing a delay in this US-sponsored project.
If this scenario is correct, Israel and Iran may notice in a short while that they are pursuing an identical policy: Instead of having a regional sub-system over which they have limited influence, they prefer to sabotage these initiatives and perpetuate regional chaos. If that happens, despite the antagonism between Iran and Israel, these countries may find themselves in a virtual “partnership.” Only the Palestinians’ choices may untie this knot. Even if this means that they, too, will have to endure more sacrifices.
