It was never going to be an easy job taking over from Javier Solana, who was popular the world over, and she also now has the added responsibility of building herself a new job within the new political structure and getting the EU’s new External Action Service up and running, which requires her presence in Brussels. Then there is the problem of overlap. While the new foreign policy structures that came into force under the Lisbon Treaty are still in this formative stage, there is some inevitable overlap between the EU’s top brass with European Commission President José Manuel Barroso, the EU presidency (Spain) and Ashton sometimes making press statements on the same issues within minutes of each other. Of course, all this should be ironed out in due course, but it will take time.Much of the criticism directed at Ashton also seems to have been unfair, and I think (in true Northern England gritty style) she had defended herself well. She did make it to Haiti eventually and had a very good visit. Furthermore, her visit to Ukraine for the inauguration of the new president, Viktor Yanukovich, was also much appreciated and symbolic of the importance the EU places on its relationship with Kiev. And, of course, she is now planning a critical visit to the Middle East on March 17, which will also take in the Gaza Strip. Although the visit to Gaza has been approved by the Israeli Foreign Ministry, many there are not happy about it as they view it as giving a boost to Hamas. Ashton, who has in the past slated Israel’s blockade of aid shipments to the territory and its colonization of Palestinian land in the West Bank, is adamant that she wants to go and see for herself what the huge amount of EU aid channeled into Gaza is being used for and see firsthand how it’s benefiting the people.
But Ashton should not stop her travels there. There is another region which should also be made a priority -- the Caspian/South Caucasus. While the EU has given much attention to Georgia following the 2008 war with Russia, it has not given the same focus to the rest of the region and in particular the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan where its role has been very much a player on the sidelines -- yet if a new war were to breakout it would almost certainly be the EU -- as a neutral player, which would be called up to pick up the pieces. This in itself is a good reason for the EU to further involve itself. Furthermore, the status quo there threatens not only the stability of the eastern EU but also undermines Europe’s energy security. An Azerbaijan at war with Armenia would not be a reliable energy provider, nor would it be a secure transit state. This could result in Europe losing access to Caspian energy, which Baku can easily direct to Russia, China and Iran -- all three big markets, offering European prices for the same gas. Therefore, following the recent visit of Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Angel Moratinos to the three countries of the South Caucasus, Ashton should take an urgent trip to Baku and Yerevan and on the way also stop in Ankara and Moscow to demonstrate the EU’s support for the ongoing peace negotiations as well as for the ongoing rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey, which risks failure unless fresh progress is made soon. Resolving Nagorno-Karabakh (as well as opening the closed Turkish-Armenia border) will unlock the Caucasus-Caspian region and bring about an unprecedented opportunity for cooperation. This could do more for the EU’s long-term security of energy supplies than all the pipeline talk currently heard in Brussels. Furthermore, it is also crucial that the EU strengthens its ties with the countries on the other side of the Caspian, too, otherwise it risks losing out on these Caspian riches.
While a visit from Ashton would be important and symbolic, the EU needs to do more when it comes to its energy policy. Firstly it needs to get its act together and demonstrate solidarity. Presently the EU is divided and not strategic enough when it comes to managing gas relations with future partners -- a lot of talk and a little action. This lack of European solidarity is also beneficial to others -- in particular China -- as it gives the Chinese free rein to determine the flow of Caspian gas. Therefore, if energy security is as important as we are regularly told it is the EU needs to take some serious action now including developing a serious Caspian strategy before it’s too late.
