While the details are still disputed, it is clear something very grim took place on Feb. 25-26, 1992, when the entire Azerbaijani population of the town was driven out by invading ethnic Armenian forces. The town was leveled and hundreds were murdered, including large numbers of women and children. There were many other tragic events throughout the war which resulted in the deaths of thousands of Armenians and Azerbaijanis, including the Sumgait killings in 1988 when over 40 Armenians died. Unfortunately, much of what happened during the Karabakh war went unnoticed by the international community, which was preoccupied with the tragic events unfolding in the western Balkans at the same time. In the end, Nagorno-Karabakh and seven surrounding Azerbaijani provinces were occupied by Armenia. More than 17 years later the Karabakh conflict still remains unresolved. Sniper fire continues on an almost daily basis across the cease-fire line and lives continue to be lost. Each side has engaged in an arms race, making the region one of the most heavily militarized (and dangerous) in Europe. Peace talks have been going on for many years under the framework of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s (OSCE) Minsk Group, and there has been at least one occasion when success seemed within reach, only to fail at the last moment -- principally due to the failure of the two leaders to sell the deal to their populations back home. Until now the two leaders have been unable to see a solution beyond their own interests and the survival of their own regimes. This is truly tragic.The recent round of peace talks are focused on reaching an agreement on a set of “basic principles” and have been under way for a number of years. Nothing can be agreed on until everything is agreed on, and this new cycle will ultimately mean a massive breakthrough or another failure, which will be disastrous for the region.
Recent events in the region have helped move things along. The Georgian-Russian war of August 2008 offered lessons for both Azerbaijanis and Armenians. For Armenia it clearly highlighted the dangers of being isolated as well as being dependent on transit from neighbors involved in their own conflicts. For Azerbaijan it demonstrated the risks of attempting to resolve a conflict by military means. While Azerbaijan may have accrued a substantial military force over the last few years, it still remains untested. The developments in Georgia also pushed the international community to give Karabakh more attention than it hitherto had and the big powers -- the US, Russia and the EU -- have endeavored to nudge the two leaders to be more flexible. However, until now it has still not been enough, even though in 2009 there were a record number of meetings between President Aliyev and President Sarkisyan -- lots of smiling and talking but still no concrete deal.
While the negotiations are carried out in a highly secretive environment -- only a handful of people know what is going on -- and it would seem that there is agreement between the two leaders on many issues, there is still some ground to cover. What is crucially important is getting the two sides to commit to the Basic Principles or finally reject them. So either a breakthrough is going to found, or the process will once again stall. Even though they seem to be close, they have been close before and failed. The biggest stumbling block remains the final status of Karabakh and the means of determining it. Azerbaijan continues to insist that Karabakh must remain part of Azerbaijan, but with the highest degree of autonomy, while Armenia continues to say that the Karabakh population has the right to self-determination. It is clear that neither will get what they want -- a middle ground will have to be found.
What is also clear is that if this round of talks fails, it is time to re-evaluate the structure of the Minsk Group because it is very difficult to see how it can continue unchanged, given that another failure will leave its credibility at zero.
Another negative factor affecting the talks is the fact that Turkey continues to link its rapprochement with Armenia to the resolution of Karabakh. Ankara continues to insist that Armenia withdraw from Azerbaijani territories before it will ratify the protocols for the normalization of relations. This action has almost certainly slowed down progress given that Armenia does not want to be seen as “trading” Karabakh.
Mountainous, beautiful Karabakh has been a scene of conflict and instability for far too long. The leadership of the two nations owes it to their peoples to begin to look beyond their own interests. They should start to be honest, clearly a word that neither leadership is particularly familiar with.
