Of course, it is not fair to compare Turkey to Croatia. Croatia is a small bite for the EU, while Turkey is a banquet. Croatia has, from day one, been united on its EU goal; Turkey has not. And while Turkey’s membership prospects continue to be soured by a number of EU member states that have no desire to see Turkey in the club, Croatia has always had the support of all 27 countries. Nobody has ever offered Croatia a privileged partnership.So far, Croatia has successfully completed talks on 17 of the 33 negotiating chapters, with negotiations ongoing on 11 others. This leaves five, which Croatia intends to open before July. While the process has been relatively smooth, it has not all been plain sailing, and Zagreb has faced difficulties, particularly from Slovenia and the Netherlands.
The Netherlands, until recently, had been blocking the chapter on issues related to the judiciary and fundamental rights because it had serious concerns over Croatia’s compliance with the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) in The Hague. It concerns a number of generals accused of atrocities in the 1991-95 war in Croatia, as well as Croatia’s failure to deliver numerous documents concerning war crimes as many of them related to officials serving in the Croatian army and elsewhere which they were reluctant to hand over. However, while Croatia has recently begun to pass on the requested documentation, the Dutch government has made it very clear that full cooperation with the ICTY will be a closing benchmark and that Croatia must not backtrack on it. Croatia does have a history of backtracking, which means the country needs very careful monitoring. Furthermore, the Netherlands will also be keeping a close eye on domestic war crime trials which continue to be carried out in an inconsistent fashion. So although Croatia has taken some positive steps which resulted in the Netherlands deciding to lift its veto, Croatia’s progress will continue to be followed very closely and again be subject to stringent closing benchmarks. Additionally, international human rights organizations, such as Amnesty International (AI), are also calling on the EU to establish a post-accession monitoring mechanism (as it did for Romania and Bulgaria on the subject of corruption) on this issue to keep up the pressure once Croatia is part of the EU.
Coming to Slovenia, the country dropped its opposition towards the opening of the fisheries and environmental chapters but still continues to block one chapter related to foreign, security and defense policy, although the reason for this is still not clear. However, it is likely to be lifted in the coming weeks, in time for the final two accession conferences in April and June. The problems in these areas were all linked to the sea border dispute that Slovenia had with Croatia but which is now resolved.
So, it really seems that Croatia is getting to the end of the EU road, which should be positive for the whole Western Balkan region. Croatia’s progress and eventual membership should hopefully spur the other countries in the region on. While they all have membership perspectives, their progress has been extremely slow. Macedonia has had candidate country status since 2005, but it still has no date for opening talks. This is principally a result of the ongoing “name issue” with Greece. Unfortunately, this could drag on for some time to come. Albania and Montenegro have both applied for membership, and the European Commission is now examining their applications. This is rather a long process, and it could take several months before the dossiers are passed on to the European Council for a decision. Serbia also applied for membership in December 2009, but the dossier has not yet been passed on to the European Commission.
The biggest laggard remains Bosnia and Herzegovina (excluding the special case of Kosovo), where no application has yet been submitted. Bosnia and Herzegovina still has a very complicated political situation with constitutional arrangements far from resolved. Difficulties continue to exist between the two entities (Republika Srpska and the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina) and the federal government. Furthermore, the internationally appointed High (EU) Representative still maintains special powers which allow him to intervene in the affairs of the country when necessary. Furthermore, Bosnia (along with Kosovo and Albania), was not included in a recent decision by the EU to lift visa requirements for citizens of the Western Balkans. However, the country has since implemented a number of reforms required for visa-free travel, and it hopes that Brussels will reassess its decision within the next few months.
So while Croatia should be congratulated for the progress it has made, there is clearly a lot of work ahead of the other countries. The EU should continue to offer them the maximum support to help them along the bumpy road to membership because as long as they remain outside the region, they will always be at risk of falling backwards into instability and chaos, which is not a desirable prospect.