A new decade, as well as a new year, has just begun, but already some of the themes that dominated the news agenda in the past few years have come back to dominate the international news agenda.The passing of time had lulled travelers into a false sense of security, but the failed bomb attack on board a transatlantic flight on Dec. 24 has revived fears of new terrorist outrages. It has also forced Western government to come up with new measures and new responses in a hurry.
The attacks of Sept. 11 led to the invasion of Afghanistan and of Iraq, but years of “war on terror” appear to have merely moved rather than removed the risk. Iraq was named a part of President George W. Bush’s “axis of evil” alongside Syria and North Korea.
As this new decade begins, new countries are emerging as security risks. Some US politicians, like Joe Liebermann, are already clamoring for pre-emptive military action against Yemen, the latest threat. Nigeria, the country of origin of the alleged attacker, and Somalia, the birthplace of the man who recently attacked Danish cartoonist Kurt Westergaard, are likely to come under closer scrutiny as well.
The US and the UK are providing support to special counter-terrorist units in Yemen. But, as the current stand-off in Afghanistan suggests, pouring financial and logistical support into countries whose governments have limited legitimacy at home, and using air raids that not only kill their intended militant targets, but many civilians as well, always carry the risk of driving the population into the arms of radicals.
The latest scare is also giving new life to policy options, such as the full body scanners now being installed in many airports, which had been considered and discarded earlier. Although the new machines, which are highly invasive, are meant to allow detection of dangerous equipment, experts caution that they will be causing long delays, since they can only process two or three passengers every minute, and may not spot explosives of the kind that were smuggled onto the Northwest Airlines fight.
Technology is only a tool. Ultimately it is the level of concentration of the personnel handling the equipment that makes a difference. Given how tedious the task of processing thousands of frustrated passengers can be and how understaffed most airports are, sustaining an eagle-eyed focus over a long period may not be easy.
Another idea revived by the US administration in response to the recent near-miss is country profiling. Passengers from 14 countries deemed to pose a security risk will from now on face lengthy searches and questions before boarding their flight. The move will undoubtedly cause resentment, and civil rights organizations are already warning that it may fuel racism, but again it may not be fail safe. The Nigerian bombing suspect had flown in from Amsterdam and although he was already on watch lists, no action had been taken. Nor will a decision to ban passengers from leaving their seats one hour before landing prevent potential bombers from setting off their explosives earlier in the flight.
The main tool against terrorism remains human intelligence, which allows for targeted action and does not foster widespread resentment. But, as the case of the recent would-be bomber demonstrates, collecting information is only the first step, which remains useless unless timely action is taken as the intelligence winds its way through bureaucratic channels. His own father had warned US officials that he presented a threat, but although the warning had been passed on, no one had connected the dots.
