According to Kyprianou, the EU is too soft on Turkey, always taking into account other considerations when making decisions related to Turkey’s accession process. He said to a certain extent the process is being driven by Ankara and not Brussels to the point where it almost seemed like Turkey sets the conditions rather than the EU. Therefore, the minister was very forceful on the issue of Turkey’s non-fulfillment of its obligations under the Ankara Protocol to extend its customs union to the Republic of Cyprus, saying the EU needed to do more than just issue a statement. He also noted that Turkey has failed to comply with all the conditions laid out in its 2005 accession framework related to Cyprus, including the normalization of relations, a peaceful settlement to disputes and a contribution to the solution of the Cyprus problem.However, at the same time, he pointed out that Cyprus was unwavering in its support for Turkey’s accession process and eventual membership because it would transform Turkey into a peaceful, stable nation with full respect for democracy, human rights and international law. To this end, it was a myth that Cyprus wanted to block Turkey or derail the process. Indeed if they so wanted to, they could already have done this on numerous occasions, including in 2004, 2005 and 2006. While that may be true, you also have to bear in mind the fact that Cyprus is a small member state and one that has so far brought the EU nothing more than problems. Therefore, there is not much patience for Cypriot games around the EU table. Furthermore, from a Greek Cypriot perspective, it is far more fun to play the “will they, won’t they” game with Turkey rather than to annoy many of their member state colleagues by vetoing a strategically important partner. Then there is also the fact that many in the EU still feel guilty over the union’s failure to deliver on all the promises made to Turkish Cypriots in the aftermath of the failed Annan plan, which saw Greek Cypriots vote “no” and enter the EU, while their Turkish Cypriot compatriots voted yes and were left out in the cold. While reunification was never a precondition for membership, many people in the EU now believe it was a fundamental foreign policy mistake to allow a divided island into the club. Turkey’s position has received more sympathy than it may have in the past when the Greek Cypriots were seen as the victims.
On the Cyprus problem, Kyprianou said he was honest enough to recognize that under the Justice and Development Party (AKP) Turkish policy on Cyprus has changed, but at the same time, he believed that Turkey was busy working on a “B” plan that undermined the current round of talks between the two leaders. Indeed I have heard a lot of rumors flying about Ankara that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is lining up some Muslim states starting with Syria and then Iran to recognize the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC) in the event that these rounds of talks fail. Frankly speaking this would be no alternative for reunification. Unless the KKTC is recognized by the US, having recognition from others will be of no real benefit. The only outcome I could see would be for more Turkish Cypriots to leave the island and go and live in London or elsewhere where you already have bigger communities than on the island itself. But for some deluded folks in Ankara, they may view Syrian recognition as a historic victory when it would be anything but.
Indeed there is too much blame being spread around including accusations that Dimitris Christofias does not want a deal, which is counterproductive. Even though many people do not agree with me, I still feel that no solution is not in the benefit of the Greek Cypriots because it will continue to mean military occupation of some 30,000 just over the Green Line. If talks were to break down with the EU, it is not impossible that Turkey could increase this number. All opportunities to get back property and territory will be lost.
So what will happen to Turkey in December? The Greek Cypriots may say they want the consequences, but given how these things usually go, I would say that realistically speaking they may end up disappointed. I still believe that the most likely outcome is an extension of the deadline to perhaps another six months or perhaps longer while talks between Mehmet Ali Talat and Christofias continue. If all parties play a constructive role, success can still be found. If they don’t, everybody will be losers -- none more than the Turkish Cypriots.
