The Obama administration must have sensed that relations with Iran were reaching a point of no return. It thus decided to gather diplomatic momentum, by getting Russia on board for a new effort at negotiations with Teheran. Needless to say, the price of getting Russia on board was to give Moscow what it wanted in Eastern Europe by shelving plans for missile defense -- a project of the Bush administration with questionable usefulness anyway.In great part thanks to Russia’s willingness to fully cooperate with the West, and also in great part to Teheran’s realization that Russia may be changing its position vis-à-vis Iran, the Islamic regime came to the negotiation table with less leverage than usual. Another major change in negotiations this time was the Obama administration’s willingness to directly engage Teheran in bilateral platforms. As a result, not only are the West and Russia now on the same page on Iran but the US also really wants to show it is serious about negotiating with Teheran. Out of this new approach emerged the joint proposal agreed to by the United States, France and Russia, to have Iran ship 70 percent of its low-enriched uranium to Russia this year.
So now the ball is on Iran’s side. As usual, Tehran is dragging its feet. Apparently the Islamic regime will not accept the proposal and propose an alternate plan, agreeing to ship smaller amounts of low-enriched uranium to Russia. The hawks in the United States are already complaining that Obama is being duped. As Robert Kagan recently pointed out in The Washington Post: “Even if Iran carried out this plan as promised -- every month would be an adventure to see how much, if anything, Iran shipped -- the slow movement of small amounts of low-enriched uranium does not accomplish the original purpose, since Iran can quickly replace these amounts with new low-enriched uranium produced by its centrifuges. Iran’s nuclear clock, which the Obama administration hoped to stop or at least slow, would continue ticking at close to its regular speed.”
Kagan also voices a common criticism of the hard-liners against Obama: “Many of us worry that, for Obama, engagement is an end in itself, not a means to an end. We worry that every time Iran rejects one proposal, the president will simply resume negotiations on another proposal and that this will continue right up until the day Iran finally tests its first nuclear weapon, at which point the president will simply begin negotiations again to try to persuade Iran to put its nuclear genie back in the bottle.”
So the question is simple: What can the West do? Is there any measure, short of war, to stop Iran from acquiring enriched uranium? Since bombing Iran will only delay the regime’s nuclear plans and cost the West dearly on the political front, the Obama administration appears determined to pursue the path of economic coercion with sanctions. Washington is likely to remain at the table with Tehran and ask that all nuclear enrichment sites be opened to international inspectors. In other words, Iran will be told that to avoid sanctions, it must adhere to an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) agreement that would allow inspectors to go virtually anywhere in the country to follow suspicions of nuclear work.
Iranian officials have long maintained that their nuclear program is designed to produce energy, not weapons, and they said the facility near Qom is for peaceful purposes. Washington, on the other hand, finds such Iranian claims hard to believe. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said the recently revealed hidden facility was “part of a pattern of deception and lies on the part of the Iranians from the very beginning with respect to their nuclear program. My personal opinion is that the Iranians have the intention of having nuclear weapons.”
There are clear signs that new economic sanctions against Iran are on the horizon. And this time, Russia may also be on board with the West thanks to a new honeymoon and “reset” in relations with Washington. The implications of all these new factors greatly matter for Ankara. If there is a transatlantic and Russian consensus on Iran involving sanctions, what will Turkey do? The time of reckoning is fast approaching, not only for Teheran but also for Ankara.
