The Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) has released a timid statement that suggests waiting to see how the court rules in the case. A few months ago, however, Chief of General Staff Gen. İlker Başbuğ was roaring like a cloud in the time of Pralaya and ordering prosecutors to find the original document. Perhaps the reason behind the roaring was confidence that the original document could not be found and that even if it was found, civilian prosecutors could not do anything.In fact, a written statement from the TSK issued after reports appeared about the original document complains about how prosecutors leaked the news to the media that the original document was found. By complaining about the way prosecutors conduct the investigation, the TSK is trying to mount pressure on them to back down from further investigation. If this is not possible, TSK leaders want to suffocate the investigation while it is under way.
When we look at why prosecutors needed to leak the news to the media, we see a wrestling match between prosecutors and the TSK that took place before the information was leaked to the media. The media reported on but did not dig into an important detail about the issue. It seems that after the document reached Ergenekon prosecutors, Col. Dursun Çiçek was invited to the prosecutor’s office for further questioning about the plot. Yet he did not go to the prosecutor’s office. Then the news was leaked to the media. After the media coverage, because of public pressure, the TSK released a press statement questioning the prosecutors’ intention in leaking the information to the media.
When the tug-of-war behind the curtains becomes public, the TSK faces public pressure and sends its officers to prosecutors to deepen their investigation. Yet Çiçek has not been handed over to prosecutors, which shows that the TSK is continuing to resist further investigation into the plot. It is unthinkable to expect that Gen. Başbuğ was not aware of the invitation. Perhaps he was the figure behind Col. Çiçek’s decision to not to go to the prosecutor’s office.
Leaking the news to the media indicates that the prosecutors intend to investigate the coup plot. And perhaps the TSK leadership has noticed how determined the prosecutors are on that subject.
Thus, they have shifted their attention from quarreling with prosecutors to developing the initiative to negotiate with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. It appears that as of Friday, the tug-of-war entered a new stage after Gen. Başbuğ and Prime Minster Erdoğan’s meeting. The tone of criticism in pro-government media was suddenly reduced, and Col. Çiçek has still not been questioned by prosecutors. It reminded us of the end of the Ergenekon operations after the meeting between Erdoğan and Başbuğ. At that time, when prosecutors asked police to arrest some high-level retired generals, Başbuğ met with Erdoğan, and since that meeting, we have not seen any investigation conducted into the Ergenekon network. Perhaps with the experience of previous “negotiation” with Erdoğan, Başbuğ might negotiate again to protect his key officers from further investigation.
We do not know the details of the “negotiation” or whether such negotiation took place at all, yet time will show us whether Başbuğ and Erdoğan negotiated on the subject. We need to wait and see whether Çiçek is going to be handed over to prosecutors or whether the TSK will wait a week or 10 days until the Constitutional Court decides on a previously amended law that allows civilian courts to conduct investigations into military officers.
I think the first two weeks of November will be important to see the direction in which developments evolve and whether such negotiation took place.
