The skeptics will see this as another sign of Turkey “moving East” and losing its “Western orientation.” While the critics may indulge themselves in a futile conceptual exercise of “East-versus-West” dichotomies, a remnant of the Cold-War era and now a largely discarded model of classical modernization, the realities on the ground present a different picture.Erdoğan’s visit to Pakistan comes at a critical time for Pakistan, the war in Afghanistan and the region as a whole. Over the last few weeks, several hundred people were killed in various suicide attacks in Islamabad alone. Security is at the highest level in the capital. Pakistan is engaged in a full-fledged war in Waziristan, one of the most difficult areas of the world. Besides the Afghan people, the war in Afghanistan is taking its toll on Pakistan as well -- a fate the Pakistanis cannot avoid unless and until a new regional order is established extending from Iran to the Afghan-Pakistani border.
The critical question is who will decide the future of the Afghan war. There are no clear answers. President Barack Obama has yet to announce his new plan for Afghanistan (as well as his Middle East peace plan). This will be a decision under pressure because he knows he has to act before US public opinion turns completely against him on the Afghan war; otherwise, he will be in the same hot spot as Gordon Brown in the UK. The Europeans are looking to Washington for a clue, and they see no clear signs. The Afghan people are not in a position to present a plan of their own; those who are fighting are fighting without any clear goal (unless resistance is defined a goal in itself). Pakistan does not have the political clout to bring the Afghan groups together; it is embroiled in a bitter fight of its own within its borders. Furthermore, both the Pakistanis and Afghans know that the Taliban is also a creation of Pakistan.
The future of the war in Afghanistan and the stability in Pakistan will not be decided by further military buildup but by a well-planned process of political reconciliation among the various groups in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region. The eight-year war has shown that hard power has reached its limits and cannot deliver either for the Western world or the Afghans themselves. It’s a self-destructive war that will continue only at the expense of all stakeholders. If we want to avoid a situation where everyone will lose, we need to start employing the instruments of soft power, diplomacy, capacity building and infrastructure, now rather than later. To that effect, Turkey held several sessions of trilateral meetings of Turkish, Afghan and Pakistani heads of state. A new neighbors of Afghanistan summit is urgently needed before things get further out of hand near the Afghan-Pakistani border.
The military conflict near the Afghan-Pakistani border does not help the already fragile political situation in Pakistan. Some are concerned about an imminent military coup in Pakistan. I personally did not see the signs of it, but you never know. Pakistan, like Turkey, has had to endure military coups.
In addition, Pakistan is fighting religious extremism, a destructive force that is threatening the very architecture of Pakistani society as a whole. It is interesting to note that Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani brought up this issue in his meeting with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and inquired about the Turkish imam-hatip schools. Can they be a model for religious education in Pakistan?
This is an interesting issue, but it avoids the real issues. It is too simplistic to assume that extremism, religious or not, can be eradicated by education alone. The real source of extremism is not a lack of education or job opportunities, but the killing presence of injustice and a sense of helplessness. Justice is not a commodity that can be replaced by something else. A new regional order in Asia will guarantee peace and stability only if it establishes justice first.
