However, it seems that the quest for direct and indirect dialogue is not free of all complications. Iran created a mini crisis when it saw the French delegation on the negotiation table, and it reiterated its will to make the deal only with Russia and the United States. In brief, Iran has demonstrated that Europe’s intention to make itself part of the negotiations makes things more difficult for everyone. Just before this crisis, a major terrorist attack supposedly linked to al-Qaeda hit Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. Maybe it was a coincidence that this attack happened while the Pakistani forces were carrying out strikes in the Waziristan region in Afghanistan in the name of the fight against terrorism. It’s obvious that some people have tried to warn Iran through terror. It is important to emphasize that this warning came at a time when Iran showed its willingness to negotiate with the West about its nuclear intentions. It’s doubtful that in a country where Shiites are the majority, a terrorist attack perpetrated by Sunnis will be able to provoke the political rifts that appeared during the presidential election period. However, this kind of attack may provoke social unrest. It appears that those who have committed this attack don’t want Iran to normalize its relations with the West over the nuclear issue.
If Iran ensures that it won’t produce nuclear weapons, other nuclear countries in the region will face much more pressure than today. If Iran normalizes its relations with the West, those in the Taliban/al-Qaeda camp who claim that the West targets all Muslims will be very embarrassed. Those who preserve their political power by presenting the United States and Russia as major threats will find themselves in a delicate position, and those who build their foreign relations on the thesis that Iran constitutes a tremendous threat will have to revise their attitudes. Iran’s guarantees of not producing nuclear weapons will have bigger effects on the Middle Eastern balances than its decision to go ahead with their production. The question of which countries Iran will choose to develop its relations with following its decision not to acquire nuclear weapons makes all regional and global players pay attention to Iran’s maneuvers.
Iran has become the symbolic engagement ring of the United States and Russia, two essential players in the ongoing game. The fact that Moscow and Washington agree on Iran disturbs some Middle Eastern states, some European countries and the “hawks” within the US and Russia. In this context, there is an apparent link between Iran’s stance in Vienna and the recent terror attack in this country. However, the Iranian authorities give the impression that they will not change their position because of a few terror attacks and that they will try to maintain the common ground of dialogue somehow. But Iran will be put to the test in the future, too. As an example, the Israeli and American armed forces will organize joint maneuvers in Israel with the scenario of a hypothetic Iranian attack and the measures that should be developed against such an event. Let’s hope that Iran will not make mistakes because of provocation it has to endure like the surprise in Vienna, the recent terror attack and these maneuvers.
