Öcalan's “peace group” initiative is an interesting development that, depending on how it is treated, could be an optimistic step toward sustainable peace between the PKK and the state. More importantly, President Abdullah Gül welcomed the initiative and alluded to a peace process when he stated back in July 2008 that in the coming months the country was going to make positive developments concerning the Kurdish initiative. Now Gül came to the podium once again and welcomed Öcalan's decision to send “peace groups” to Turkey. Gül's green light for Öcalan's “peace group” initiative convinces us that the process is well coordinated between Öcalan and state institutions. At this stage, let me remind you about the process I tried to explain in one of my articles on Oct. 8. In that article, I tried to explain Öcalan's role in the Kurdish initiative and underlined that “it appears, Turkish officials have suggested and Öcalan seems to agree to find a solution based on the concept of ‘there is no winner and no loser in this war.' … Perhaps based on this agreement, the road map was submitted to Turkish authorities to consider, or negotiate, with Öcalan and include his suggestion in the AKP's Kurdish initiative and present it as if it were the government's plan. Knowing that it would be hard to convince the Turkish public that the government is negotiating with Öcalan, Turkish authorities seem to negotiate with Öcalan, and Öcalan agrees with it. Perhaps for this very reason, Öcalan was furiously criticizing the [Democratic Society Party] DTP and the PKK for not understanding him. The PKK, on the other hand, uses this, the road map argument, as a political tool to highlight its demands. The critical issue here is how to end the negotiations. Öcalan and some government institutions held negotiations in 2006 and 2007; however, the negotiations failed because of Öcalan's unacceptable demands. … however, it is still quite fragile and can be broken at any time by any side.”
When we unfold Öcalan's “peace group” initiative we see that Öcalan, by taking such steps, reaffirms his leadership in the eyes of the state bureaucracy and the Kurdish public as well. Such steps once again prove that Öcalan is the only participant that Turkey could negotiate with. Second, the “peace group” initiative functions as insurance for Öcalan to test whether Turkish state institutions and groups in the PKK are sincere about possible peace. It seems that Öcalan, while negotiating with the National Intelligence Organization (MİT), is not sure about what the other institutions, i.e., the military, the judiciary and the Interior Ministry, think about the peace process.
Öcalan, after having been in prison for 10 years and having limited connection with the organization, may want to test his influence on the PKK as well. We need to keep in mind that at least half of the PKK militants are in their 20s, which means that the new generation of PKK militants was around 10 to 15 years of age when Öcalan was arrested in 1999. Thus it would be difficult for Öcalan to assess his influence on the PKK. On the other hand, Öcalan is very well aware of the fact that time is running against him because as the new generations of PKK militants, who have no fighting experience under Öcalan's active leadership of the PKK, hold strategic positions in the PKK structure, Öcalan may lose its control over the PKK. Therefore, 10 years from now, if the PKK maintains its position, the old generation of PKK militants will be around 65 to 70-year-old elders who will lose their ability to fight. The new generation of PKK militants, perhaps some of them working for the MİT or other intelligence agencies, will change the direction of the PKK, which Öcalan may not want to see. Thus, Öcalan thinks that the next few years are his and first-generation PKK militants' last opportunity to end the war and for him to emerge as the “peace maker” and the national hero of the Kurds.
Therefore, Öcalan's “peace group” initiative would be a last golden opportunity for Gül and Öcalan to bring peace to the country. Yet, one needs to keep in mind that there are people who benefit from the war, and more importantly, the war itself created its own economy and politics that are difficult to deal with. The existence of the bloodsuckers on both sides creates great uncertainty about the future of peace. Thus, it is still too early to be optimistic about the process.
